Apple Predicted to Sell Nearly 200 Million iPhones Next Year

Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty, who has historically been rather conservative in her predictions of Apple's performance, issued a new report yesterday (via Fortune) suggesting that Apple could sell nearly 200 million iPhones next year. The number would be more than double that of this year's iPhone sales, which currently stand at 56 million ahead of a blockbuster quarter that is expected to add perhaps 30-35 million to that number.

- iPhones are selling surprisingly briskly. Based on the survey and last week's comments from AT&T (T), Huberty estimates that Apple (AAPL) could ship anywhere from 31 to 36 million iPhones this quarter -- as much as 20% higher than the 30 million she's modeling and nearly 30% higher than the 28 million Wall Street is expecting.

- iPhone demand is accelerating. "Surprisingly," she writes, "US consumers expect to buy more iPhones in C1Q12 than C4Q11" (emphasis hers). Even discounting the survey results 10%, that suggests Apple could sell 13 million iPhones in the U.S. and 41 million worldwide next quarter. Morgan Stanley's model has Apple selling 30 million iPhones in calendar Q1 2012.

Huberty's predictions are based on her own research and a consumer survey by AlphaWise that pegs demand for the iPhone next year 40% higher than anticipated by Morgan Stanley in its "base case" scenario.

morgan stanley cy12 iphone ipad
On the tablet side, the survey data points to a similar story, with Huberty's survey data indicating that Apple could see sales of over 80 million iPads next year, well above her firm's estimate of 52 million units. Apple has sold 25 million iPads so far this year, with analysts estimating that Apple may add 13-14 million units to that total in the holiday quarter.

Top Rated Comments

3N16MA Avatar
145 months ago
iPhone sales per year (roughly rounded)

2008: 13.6 million
2009: 25.2 million
2010: 47.4 million
2011: 86-91 million (estimated)


iPhone sales have been nearly doubling for the past 4 years. 200 million may be a little high but not that crazy. Hey guys look, I'm an analyst!
Score: 6 Votes (Like | Disagree)
nuckinfutz Avatar
145 months ago
just bought a windows phone ... sorry apple.
HTC Titan.

Thing is the biz

Ridiculous screen size (4.7)
Bluetooth 2.1 (two generations old)
720p video recording
Single Core Processor.
Minuscule software market

I think Apple is probably more sorry for you
Score: 4 Votes (Like | Disagree)
Stella Avatar
145 months ago
A huge number - but it's coming from an
Analyst - so the prediction probably way off!
Score: 4 Votes (Like | Disagree)
Henriok Avatar
145 months ago
I want voice-only FaceTime
EarTime?
Score: 3 Votes (Like | Disagree)
ipoppy Avatar
145 months ago
I know I am off the topic here but .....what would be next killer feature in iPhone 5? I am not talking about screen size increasment. It seems there is nothing out there to wish for....just better processor, design and battery I guess.
Score: 3 Votes (Like | Disagree)
imama Avatar
145 months ago
I want voice-only FaceTime so that we can finally drop the wireless carriers.

iMessage already save my SMS money. FaceTime (or may be TalkTime :) without video will be also a great feature.
Score: 3 Votes (Like | Disagree)

Popular Stories

iOS 16

Apple Releases iOS 16.3 With Security Keys for Apple ID, New HomePod Support, Bug Fixes and More

Monday January 23, 2023 10:10 am PST by
Apple today released iOS 16.3, the third major update to the iOS 16 operating system that first came out in September. iOS 16.3 comes over a month after the launch of iOS 16.2, an update that added the Freeform app, Apple Music Sing, Advanced Data Protection, and more. iOS 16‌.3 can be downloaded on eligible iPhones and iPads over-the-air by going to Settings > General > Software Update....
iOS 16

iOS 16.3 for iPhone Launching Next Week With These 4 New Features

Friday January 20, 2023 11:43 am PST by
In a recent press release, Apple confirmed that iOS 16.3 will be released to the public next week. The software update will be available for the iPhone 8 and newer and includes a handful of new features, changes, and bug fixes. Below, we've recapped bigger features in iOS 16.3, including support for physical security keys as a two-factor authentication option for Apple ID accounts, worldwide ...
iPhone 14 Pro Purple Side Perspective Feature Purple

iPhone 15 Pro Expected Later This Year With These 7 Exclusive Features

Tuesday January 24, 2023 4:53 pm PST by
Apple's next-generation iPhone 15 Pro and iPhone 15 Pro Max are expected to be announced in September as usual. Already, rumors suggest the devices will have at least seven exclusive features not available on the standard iPhone 15 and iPhone 15 Plus. An overview of the seven features rumored to be exclusive to iPhone 15 Pro models:A17 chip: iPhone 15 Pro models will be equipped with an A17...
watchOS 9 Feature

Apple Releases watchOS 9.3 With New Watch Face, Bug Fixes

Monday January 23, 2023 10:06 am PST by
Apple today released watchOS 9.3, the third major update to the watchOS 9 operating system that first launched in September. watchOS 9.3 comes over a month after watchOS 9.2, an update that added new Workout functionality and Crash Detection optimizations. watchOS 9.3 can be downloaded for free through the Apple Watch app on the iPhone by opening it up and going to General > Software Update. ...
iPhone trade in

Apple Adjusts Trade-In Values for iPhones, Macs, and More

Wednesday January 25, 2023 9:40 am PST by
After announcing new Mac and HomePod models last week, Apple adjusted its trade-in values for select devices in the United States. iPhone trade-in values decreased by up to $80, and most Android smartphones also went down. Mac trade-in values remained unchanged or increased by up to $40 depending on the model, while some Apple Watch models increased in value and others decreased. Trade-in...
Ventura Macs Feature Blue

Apple Releases macOS Ventura 13.2

Monday January 23, 2023 10:09 am PST by
Apple today released macOS Ventura 13.2, the second major update to the macOS Ventura operating system initially released in October. macOS Ventura 13.2 comes more than a month after macOS Ventura 13.1, an update that added the Freeform app and other changes. The ‌macOS Ventura‌ 13.2 update can be downloaded for free on all eligible Macs using the Software Update section of System...
Mac mini M2 2023

New 256GB Mac Mini and 512GB MacBook Pro Have Slower SSD Speeds Than Previous Models

Tuesday January 24, 2023 1:11 pm PST by
While the new Mac mini with the M2 chip has a lower $599 starting price, the base model with 256GB of storage has slower SSD read and write speeds compared to the previous-generation model with the M1 chip and 256GB of storage. A teardown of the new Mac mini shared by YouTube channel Brandon Geekabit reveals that the 256GB model is equipped with only a single 256GB storage chip, while the...
apple tv 4k red image

Apple Releases tvOS 16.3

Tuesday January 24, 2023 10:10 am PST by
Apple today released tvOS 16.3, the third major point update to the tvOS 16 operating system that originally came out in September. Available for the Apple TV 4K and Apple TV HD, tvOS 16.3 comes six weeks after tvOS 16.2, an update that added Apple Music Sing. The tvOS 16.3 update can be downloaded over the air through the Settings app on the ‌‌‌‌Apple TV‌‌‌‌ by going to System > Software...