Apple Predicted to Sell Nearly 200 Million iPhones Next Year

Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty, who has historically been rather conservative in her predictions of Apple's performance, issued a new report yesterday (via Fortune) suggesting that Apple could sell nearly 200 million iPhones next year. The number would be more than double that of this year's iPhone sales, which currently stand at 56 million ahead of a blockbuster quarter that is expected to add perhaps 30-35 million to that number.

- iPhones are selling surprisingly briskly. Based on the survey and last week's comments from AT&T (T), Huberty estimates that Apple (AAPL) could ship anywhere from 31 to 36 million iPhones this quarter -- as much as 20% higher than the 30 million she's modeling and nearly 30% higher than the 28 million Wall Street is expecting.

- iPhone demand is accelerating. "Surprisingly," she writes, "US consumers expect to buy more iPhones in C1Q12 than C4Q11" (emphasis hers). Even discounting the survey results 10%, that suggests Apple could sell 13 million iPhones in the U.S. and 41 million worldwide next quarter. Morgan Stanley's model has Apple selling 30 million iPhones in calendar Q1 2012.

Huberty's predictions are based on her own research and a consumer survey by AlphaWise that pegs demand for the iPhone next year 40% higher than anticipated by Morgan Stanley in its "base case" scenario.

morgan stanley cy12 iphone ipad
On the tablet side, the survey data points to a similar story, with Huberty's survey data indicating that Apple could see sales of over 80 million iPads next year, well above her firm's estimate of 52 million units. Apple has sold 25 million iPads so far this year, with analysts estimating that Apple may add 13-14 million units to that total in the holiday quarter.

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Top Rated Comments

3N16MA Avatar
163 months ago
iPhone sales per year (roughly rounded)

2008: 13.6 million
2009: 25.2 million
2010: 47.4 million
2011: 86-91 million (estimated)


iPhone sales have been nearly doubling for the past 4 years. 200 million may be a little high but not that crazy. Hey guys look, I'm an analyst!
Score: 6 Votes (Like | Disagree)
nuckinfutz Avatar
163 months ago
just bought a windows phone ... sorry apple.
HTC Titan.

Thing is the biz

Ridiculous screen size (4.7)
Bluetooth 2.1 (two generations old)
720p video recording
Single Core Processor.
Minuscule software market

I think Apple is probably more sorry for you
Score: 4 Votes (Like | Disagree)
Stella Avatar
163 months ago
A huge number - but it's coming from an
Analyst - so the prediction probably way off!
Score: 4 Votes (Like | Disagree)
Henriok Avatar
163 months ago
I want voice-only FaceTime
EarTime?
Score: 3 Votes (Like | Disagree)
ipoppy Avatar
163 months ago
I know I am off the topic here but .....what would be next killer feature in iPhone 5? I am not talking about screen size increasment. It seems there is nothing out there to wish for....just better processor, design and battery I guess.
Score: 3 Votes (Like | Disagree)
imama Avatar
163 months ago
I want voice-only FaceTime so that we can finally drop the wireless carriers.

iMessage already save my SMS money. FaceTime (or may be TalkTime :) without video will be also a great feature.
Score: 3 Votes (Like | Disagree)