Analyst: Apple to Sell 80+ Million iPhones in 2012, Snag 5.7% of Total Mobile Phone Market

In an extensive research report on the smartphone industry released this morning, RBC Capital Markets reveals a "new world order" in which smartphones embracing the convergence of communication, computing, and content are becoming the "next wave" of computing. Based on this evidence, RBC sees smartphones, led by Apple, Research in Motion and Palm, taking a larger share of mobile phone sales than previously predicted, and even capturing users, revenue and market share from other markets such as the PC, TV, media player, digital camera, gaming, and navigation markets previously considered discrete market segments.

RBC sees the possibility for 4-5 smartphone "leaders", each carving out a fairly distinct market segment on which to focus. The model sees Apple as having staked out the "media-centric" segment and Research in Motion having grabbed the "productivity-centric" segment, and proposes three other segments that may yet arise: "PIM-centric" focused on personal organization, "cloud-centric" based on data-heavy users taking advantage of web-based e-mail, social networking and other web-based services, and a "specialized" market for devices that excel in one specific area such as e-books, gaming, or navigation.

The report views Apple's installed base of 100+ million iPod users and 300+ million iTunes users as natural leverage for expanding market share, and sees the company continuing to introduce innovations that will further expand the addressable market. Apple's existing smartphone unit market share of 10.8% is expected to grow to 16.3% in 2012, but that growth would occur alongside expected growth of the smartphone share of the overall mobile market from ~10% to 35% over that time. The result is that Apple's overall mobile market share would grow from 1.1% in 2008 to 5.7% in 2012 on unit growth from 13.7 million in 2008 to 82.1 million in 2012.

095636 rbc apple estimates 500
Image from RBC Capital Markets
("TAM" refers to Total Addressable Market)

Based on the total market analysis, RBC has raised its target price for Apple's stock to $250 from a previous target of $190.

We view the iPhone as a 10-year platform, with significant growth and share gains ahead. Our outlook reflects continued share gains in domestic and international markets, driven by distribution expansion, innovations in user experience, and additional iPhone SKUs. Apple's iTunes/iTunes Store/device ecosystem remains a significant source of competitive advantage.

Besides Apple, RBC also sees Research in Motion continuing to succeed with its BlackBerry line of smartphones and Palm possessing the "secret sauce" of management, integration and innovation to leverage its new webOS operating system for future market gains.

Popular Stories

apple ar headset concept 1

Apple's Headset Said to Feature 14 Cameras Enabling Lifelike Avatars, Jony Ive Has Remained Involved With Design

Friday May 20, 2022 6:50 am PDT by
Earlier this week, The Information's Wayne Ma outlined struggles that Apple has faced during the development of its long-rumored AR/VR headset. Now, in a follow-up report, he has shared several additional details about the wearable device. Apple headset render created by Ian Zelbo based on The Information reporting For starters, one of the headset's marquee features is said to be lifelike...
iPhone 14 Purple Lineup Feature

Will the iPhone 14 Be a Disappointment?

Saturday May 21, 2022 9:00 am PDT by
With around four months to go before Apple is expected to unveil the iPhone 14 lineup, the overwhelming majority of rumors related to the new devices so far have focused on the iPhone 14 Pro, rather than the standard iPhone 14 – leading to questions about how different the iPhone 14 will actually be from its predecessor, the iPhone 13. The iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max are expected...
sony headphones 1

Sony's New WH-1000XM5 Headphones vs. Apple's AirPods Max

Friday May 20, 2022 12:18 pm PDT by
Sony this week came out with an updated version of its popular over-ear noise canceling headphones, so we picked up a pair to compare them to the AirPods Max to see which headphones are better and whether it's worth buying the $400 WH-1000XM5 from Sony over Apple's $549 AirPods Max. Subscribe to the MacRumors YouTube channel for more videos. First of all, the AirPods Max win out when it comes ...
studio display 3

Apple's Rumored 27-Inch Mini-LED Display Now Said to Launch in October

Friday May 20, 2022 8:07 am PDT by
Apple now plans to release a new 27-inch display with mini-LED backlighting in October due to the Shanghai lockdown, which has resulted in production of the display being delayed, according to display industry consultant Ross Young. In a tweet, Young said Apple is in the process of moving production of the display from Quanta Computer to a different supplier and/or location, resulting in a...
HomePodandMini feature green

Kuo: Apple to Release New HomePod in Late 2022 or Early 2023

Friday May 20, 2022 8:55 am PDT by
Apple is working on an updated version of the HomePod that could come in the fourth quarter of 2022 or the first quarter of 2023, according to Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo. Kuo says that there "may not be much innovation in hardware design" for the new HomePod, and there is no word on what size the device will be and if it will be a HomePod mini successor or a larger speaker. Apple would ...
airtag purple

Best Apple Deals of the Week: Save on AirTag, AirPods 3, and iPads

Friday May 20, 2022 8:01 am PDT by
Solid markdowns on the AirTag, AirPods 3, and a few iPad models were introduced this week, and below you'll find all of the best deals of the past few days that are still available to purchase. AirTag Note: MacRumors is an affiliate partner with some of these vendors. When you click a link and make a purchase, we may receive a small payment, which helps us keep the site running. What's the...