Ming-Chi Kuo Says 'Worst Soon Over' in Regards to Slowing iPhone Sales
Earlier this month, Apple lowered its revenue guidance for the first quarter of the 2019 fiscal year by up to $9 billion due to fewer iPhone upgrades than it anticipated, particularly in the Greater China region.
Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, however, believes the "worst" will be "soon over" in regards to the slowdown. In his latest research note with TF International Securities, obtained by MacRumors, Kuo opined that the "share prices of Apple and most iPhone suppliers are generally priced in the negative."
Our report published on December 14, 2018, was the first to cut the estimation of 2019 iPhone shipments to 190mn units or less; the current market consensus on 2019 iPhone shipments (160–180mn units) is much lower than our estimation and we believe the share prices of Apple and most iPhone suppliers are generally priced in the negative.
We maintain our forecast of 188–192mn units for 2019 iPhone shipments. We believe the downside risks of share prices for the Apple and iPhone supply chain are limited in the near term given that 2Q19 iPhone shipments will likely be better than the market consensus.
Kuo has slightly cut his estimate for iPhone shipments in the first quarter of 2019 from 38–42 million units to 36–38 million units because the "demand for new models in China and emerging markets is lower than expected," but he believes the decline will begin to ease starting in the second quarter.
Specifically, he estimates iPhone shipments in the second quarter of 2019 will reach 34–37 million units, slightly higher than the market consensus of 30–35 million units. That would still be a roughly 14 percent decline on a year-over-year basis, but far better than an estimated 29 percent drop in the first quarter.
As long as the US-China trade war does not worsen, Kuo expects the improvement to continue into the second half of 2019, with iPhone shipments likely to be generally flat compared to the second half of 2018 thanks to stronger replacement demand, trade-in programs, and market share gain in European markets.
Kuo maintains his forecast of 188–192 million iPhone shipments in 2019.
Popular Stories
Apple's online store is going down for a few hours on a rolling country-by-country basis right now, but do not get your hopes up for new products.
Apple takes its online store down for a few hours ahead of Black Friday every year to tease/prepare for its annual gift card offer with the purchase of select products. The store already went down and came back online in Australia and New Zealand, ...
Apple recently teamed up with Japanese fashion brand ISSEY MIYAKE to create the iPhone Pocket, a limited-edition knitted accessory designed to carry an iPhone. However, it is now completely sold out in all countries where it was released.
iPhone Pocket became available to order on Apple's online store starting Friday, November 14, in the United States, France, China, Italy, Japan, Singapore, ...
While all Macs are now powered by Apple's custom-designed chips, a new rumor claims that Apple may rekindle its partnership with Intel, albeit in a new and limited way.
Apple supply chain analyst Ming-Chi Kuo today said Intel is expected to begin shipping Apple's lowest-end M-series chip as early as mid-2027.
Kuo said Apple plans to utilize Intel's 18A process, which is the "earliest...
We've been focusing on deals on physical products over the past few weeks, but Black Friday is also a great time of year to purchase a streaming membership. Some of the biggest services have great discounts for new and select returning members this week, including Apple TV, Disney+, Hulu, Paramount+, Peacock, and more.
Note: MacRumors is an affiliate partner with some of these vendors. When...
Apple's disappointing iPhone Air sales are causing major Chinese mobile vendors to scrap or freeze their own ultra-thin phone projects, according to reports coming out of Asia.
Since the iPhone Air launched in September, there have been reports of poor sales and manufacturing cuts, while Apple's supply chain has scaled back shipments and production.
Apple supplier Foxconn has...
Cellular carriers have always offered big savings on the newest iPhone models during the holidays, and Black Friday 2025 sales have kicked off at AT&T, Verizon, T-Mobile, and more. Right now we're tracking notable offers on the iPhone 17, iPhone 17 Pro, iPhone 17 Pro Max, and iPhone Air. For even more savings, keep an eye on older models during the holiday shopping season.
Note: MacRumors is...
Apple's first foldable iPhone is expected to launch alongside the iPhone 18 Pro models in fall 2026, and it's shaping up to include three standout features that could set it apart from the competition.
The book-style foldable will reportedly feature an industry-first 24-megapixel under-display camera built into the inner display, according to a recent JP Morgan equity research report. That...
