Ming-Chi Kuo Says 'Worst Soon Over' in Regards to Slowing iPhone Sales
Earlier this month, Apple lowered its revenue guidance for the first quarter of the 2019 fiscal year by up to $9 billion due to fewer iPhone upgrades than it anticipated, particularly in the Greater China region.
Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, however, believes the "worst" will be "soon over" in regards to the slowdown. In his latest research note with TF International Securities, obtained by MacRumors, Kuo opined that the "share prices of Apple and most iPhone suppliers are generally priced in the negative."
Our report published on December 14, 2018, was the first to cut the estimation of 2019 iPhone shipments to 190mn units or less; the current market consensus on 2019 iPhone shipments (160–180mn units) is much lower than our estimation and we believe the share prices of Apple and most iPhone suppliers are generally priced in the negative.
We maintain our forecast of 188–192mn units for 2019 iPhone shipments. We believe the downside risks of share prices for the Apple and iPhone supply chain are limited in the near term given that 2Q19 iPhone shipments will likely be better than the market consensus.
Kuo has slightly cut his estimate for iPhone shipments in the first quarter of 2019 from 38–42 million units to 36–38 million units because the "demand for new models in China and emerging markets is lower than expected," but he believes the decline will begin to ease starting in the second quarter.
Specifically, he estimates iPhone shipments in the second quarter of 2019 will reach 34–37 million units, slightly higher than the market consensus of 30–35 million units. That would still be a roughly 14 percent decline on a year-over-year basis, but far better than an estimated 29 percent drop in the first quarter.
As long as the US-China trade war does not worsen, Kuo expects the improvement to continue into the second half of 2019, with iPhone shipments likely to be generally flat compared to the second half of 2018 thanks to stronger replacement demand, trade-in programs, and market share gain in European markets.
Kuo maintains his forecast of 188–192 million iPhone shipments in 2019.
Popular Stories
Wednesday September 24, 2025 3:58 pm PDT by
Juli CloverWith the iPhone 15 series, I did an experiment and kept my iPhone's Charge Limit set at 80 percent for an entire year. It provided an interesting look at the impact of charge limits on battery longevity, so I decided to repeat it for the iPhone 16 line.
Since September 2024, my iPhone 16 Pro Max has been limited to an 80 percent charge, with no cheating. As of today, my battery's maximum...
Apple is developing an all-new operating system codenamed "Charismatic," according to Bloomberg's Mark Gurman.
Apple smart home hub concept based on rumors
This is likely Apple's long-rumored "homeOS" operating system.
In a report last month, Gurman said both Apple's rumored smart home hub in 2026 and tabletop robot in 2027 will run the new operating system. He said the software platform ...
Apple's annual "Back to School" promotion for students ends soon, so act fast if you want to score free AirPods with the purchase of an eligible new Mac or iPad.
Until Tuesday, September 30, college students and qualifying educational staff in the U.S. can receive free AirPods 4 with Active Noise Cancellation when they purchase an eligible new Mac or iPad from Apple. This is a $179 value.
...
While the iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max are still a year away, there are already a few rumors about the devices that offer an early look ahead.
Below, we have recapped some of the early iPhone 18 Pro rumors so far. This story was published previously, and it has been updated to reflect the latest rumors.
Many early rumors prove to be true, but nothing is confirmed yet, and Apple's...
Apple is preparing to release iOS 26.0.1, according to a private account on X with a proven track record of sharing information about future iOS versions.
MacRumors has also seen evidence of iOS 26.0.1 in its visitor logs in recent days.
It is likely that iOS 26.0.1 will fix a camera-related bug on the new iPhone Air and iPhone 17 Pro models. In his iPhone Air review, CNN Underscored's...
Apple released the first beta of iOS 26.1 today, just a week after launching iOS 26. iOS 26.1 mainly adds new languages to Apple Intelligence, but there are a few other features that are worth knowing about.
New Apple Intelligence Languages
Apple Intelligence is now available in Danish, Dutch, Norwegian, Portuguese (Portugal), Swedish, Turkish, Chinese (Traditional), and Vietnamese.
AirPo...
The next Apple TV is expected to be released later this year, and a handful of new features and changes have been rumored for the device.
Below, we recap what to expect from the next Apple TV, according to rumors.
Likely Features
N1 Chip With Wi-Fi 7
Last year, Bloomberg's Mark Gurman said the next Apple TV would be equipped with Apple's own combined Wi-Fi and Bluetooth chip, which is...
In March, Apple delayed the launch of its personalized Siri features, and soon after the company was hit with multiple class action lawsuits over the situation.
The plaintiffs said they never would have purchased an iPhone 16, or would have paid less, had they known Apple's marketing about the Siri features was false.
In the U.S., all of the complaints were consolidated into one class...
