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75% of Early iPad Purchasers Already Own an iPad, Early-Adopter Upgrade Cycle Around 23 Months

Friday November 1, 2013 1:38 pm PDT by Jordan Golson

According to a survey by PiperJaffray, 75 percent of U.S. iPad Air purchasers on launch day already owned an iPad, compared to only 58 percent for last year's iPad mini launch.

Gene Munster, a PiperJaffray analyst, believes the U.S. market may be getting slightly more saturated.

Surveying 71 day-one iPad buyers, Munster found that the early-adopter upgrade cycle is around 23 months, significantly shorter than the general public's upgrade cycle of 30 months. Also, the average capacity purchased today was 59.7GB versus 40.5GB for the 3rd-generation iPad launch.

Of the iPad Air buyers who already own an iPad (75%), only 18% expected to keep using the old device and essentially all of those users were owners of an iPad Mini. We noted a similar trend in our iPad Mini survey in that 76% of iPad Mini buyers expected to use the Mini along with their prior full-sized iPad. We believe this makes sense as the majority of consumers that already own an iPad seemed to be replacing it with the Air entirely, but viewed the Mini as a companion device to the larger iPad. In other words, if a consumer owns more than one iPad, it is more likely to be an iPad Air and an iPad Mini than multiple full-sized iPads.

With Apple likely selling millions of iPads this weekend, PiperJaffray's survey of 71 buyers is a small fraction but the broader trends could be consistent with the larger U.S. market. 1 in 5 of today's buyers picked up the 128GB iPad Air, while a 94 percent of buyers said they owned an iPhone.

The iPad Air still remains in stock on the Apple Online Store with nearly all configurations available to ship within 24 hours.

Top Rated Comments

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Iconoclysm

75 months ago

In other words, the very very early adopters are more likely to be fanboys, who buy everything Apple makes and thus already had iPads.

This isn't new, but it's nice to have proof.

At some point, people have confused the word fanboy with satisfied customers.

Rating: 22 Votes

Patriot24

75 months ago

I love my iPad 2. But none of the iPads after it have been worthy enough for me to upgrade to.

If a retina display isn't enough to make you consider upgrading, you'll likely be rocking that iPad 2 forever. In a device like a tablet where the display is 90% of the experience, I can't imagine what else you would want Apple to focus on.

Rating: 19 Votes

Makosuke

75 months ago

The very general trend is probably correct, but a sample size of 71 seems awfully small to get an accurate statistical representation of the trends involved here. It's not small enough to be anecdotal, but I'm willing to bet the error bars are pretty big (especially if the distribution wasn't geographically broad).

I'm just disappointed that my statistics class was long enough ago that I don't remember how to calculate this properly from an estimated population of, say, a million or two buyers.

Rating: 11 Votes

Teste

75 months ago

In other words, the very very early adopters are more likely to be fanboys, who buy everything Apple makes and thus already had iPads.

This isn't new, but it's nice to have proof.

Rating: 9 Votes

Rogifan

75 months ago

Played with it at Apple today. Very impressive. I would have brought one home if the Notes app was easier on the eyes. The harsh bright white background of Notes was the dealbreaker.

I'm not a huge iOS 7 fan but I could definitely use it if Notes was the old style. I sent feedback to Apple suggesting it be considered as an accessibility option. Not real hopeful but nothing to lose.

The iPad Air is really something. Check it out.

Apple's notes app was a deal breaker for you? Wow. I think I could deal with that and probably find something better in the App Store.

Rating: 9 Votes

Rogifan

75 months ago

I can't believe people take anything Gene Munster says seriously.

Rating: 7 Votes

bassfingers

75 months ago

It's funny how Apple knows more about the market than people here on the forum. Delaying the mini was a good idea it looks like. More margins. Gold iPhone was a good move. 5c is a cash boon.

Glad the computer chair critics here aren't in charge.

Sure they'll make a quick buck selling toys. But everything is getting dumber. We are finally in viewing distance of Apple being no different than Sony (or any other tech company). Apple is quickly running out of things that distinguishes itself as a company. The question is no longer "when will apple get back on track?" but instead "who will take their place?"

Rating: 6 Votes

CalWizrd

75 months ago

I used to have a lot of respect for Gene Munster, but over the past year or so I've come to the conclusion that he derives a lot of his "intelligence" from his rectum.

Rating: 5 Votes

Patriot24

75 months ago

Don't think this bodes well for future sales of iPad if the majority are repeat buyers. Apple needs new buyers to make this product cycle a success.

Do this same survey again in 3 weeks when everyone is holiday gift shopping and the numbers change drastically. If you're getting an iPad as a gift, you likely don't already have one.

Rating: 5 Votes