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Roundup of Analyst Expectations Ahead of Apple Q411 Earnings Call

Philip Elmer-Dewitt has put together his list of analyst expectations ahead of Apple's quarterly earnings report this afternoon. The list includes estimates from 16 "independent" analysts and 42 "affiliated" analysts who work for large investment houses or research organizations.

As usual, the independent analysts are much more bullish than the affiliated analysts. The independent consensus expects earnings per share (EPS) of $9.07 on revenue of $33.47 billion. The institutional consensus is EPS of $7.31 on $29.45 billion in revenue.


Click through to Elmer-DeWitt's post at Fortune to see the full-size chart.

Apple will announce its earnings for the fourth fiscal quarter of 2011 (third calendar quarter) and host a conference call regarding the release this afternoon at 5:00 PM Eastern / 2:00 PM Pacific. The earnings release itself typically comes in around 4:30 PM Eastern.

Last quarter the company announced record-breaking results in a number of areas, including $7.31 billion in profit on revenue of $28.57 billion. For the fourth fiscal quarter, Apple has issued guidance of $25 billion in revenue with profits of $5.50 per share.



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102 months ago

The stock and Apple as a company is slowing down Androids marketshare is beginning to crush them. Also it will be overshadowed by the Android event today


We keep hearing this from the Android fans who inexplicably camp Apple-centric sites, yet the opposite keeps happening.

I'm afraid that no competitor's event can overshadow the iPhone-mania that is happening now - worldwide - in response to the 4S.
Rating: 6 Votes
102 months ago

What did you expect?

One company creates real value and pushes the market forward. The other one creates vapourware videos and milks the same ish they've been milking for the past 20 years, hoping the trend will somehow continue forever.

There's a reason Apple has MS firmly in their rearview and is seeing them get smaller with every quarter.


I love when you make up crap like this. Yes - clearly Microsoft hasn't done a thing in 20 years.

If you want people to discuss things with you using facts - why don't you practice what you preach?
Rating: 3 Votes
102 months ago
I can't help but think two things:

First, the results will be overshadowed by Steve's passing.

Second, the results will still be terrific by any objective measure.
Rating: 2 Votes
102 months ago

I don't understand.

Why does the stock drop after apple announces financial results?


It's an old stock market truism: Buy on rumor, sell on news.
Rating: 2 Votes
102 months ago
First off I advise everyone to listen in on the earnings call. It's actually really informative and you learn a lot. Tim cook talks a lot and Peter Oppenheimer talks a lot. After that the analysts get to ask 20 mins of questions. Go to apple.com and there is a link in "investor relations" it's quicktime. It's like a 45 min thing. I think it starts like 4:30 or so.

Stock drops after earings if
1. some metric falls short of expections
2. forward guidance is not bullish.

For example This quarter last year Apples Gross margin decreased a lot more than analysis thought. Even though apple crushed all other metrics the stock dropped considerably b/c they got worried apple was making less per device.

Over the past year the gross margin has actually been increasing so that concern was all for nothing.

I expect a pop after hours once they announce earnings. going to have incredible forward guidance with the new iphone 4S. Costs are down meaning margins are up b/c components are cheaper and it's the same design.

The past two quarters the stock went up after the earnings were released.

Disclosure: I'm long apple common shares.

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What did you expect?

One company creates real value and pushes the market forward. The other one creates vapourware videos and milks the same ish they've been milking for the past 20 years, hoping the trend will somehow continue forever.

There's a reason Apple has MS firmly in their rearview and is seeing them get smaller with every quarter.


Also Microsoft at it's height was valued at over $600B. So Apple at $400B although it sounds like a lot is still $200B off Microsoft. Apple has a lot of room to grow. They will eventually pass that $600B mark. Stock is cheap relative to growth and earnings.
Rating: 2 Votes
102 months ago

The stock and Apple as a company is slowing down Androids marketshare is beginning to crush them. Also it will be overshadowed by the Android event today


And you are on a Mac Site because?

Had to google that event since it is so well reported everywhere.
Just like Apple news.

Go figure:-)
Rating: 2 Votes
102 months ago

First off I advise everyone to listen in on the earnings call. It's actually really informative and you learn a lot. Tim cook talks a lot and Peter Oppenheimer talks a lot. After that the analysts get to ask 20 mins of questions. Go to apple.com and there is a link in "investor relations" it's quicktime. It's like a 45 min thing. I think it starts like 4:30 or so.

Stock drops after earnings if
1. some metric falls short of expections
2. forward guidance is not bullish.


Disclosure: I'm long apple common shares.


Long, too.

Anyway, I agree that the analyst call can be informative. If you can't make it, there is usually a recording later on. It's interesting to see what questions get asked. Macworld and CBS Marketwatch usually run good live blogs, as well (Macworld more on the raw shipment data and CBS on the financial data).

I think the guidance will be critical. There's a rumor that Apple "only" sold 13 million iPads in Q4, so it will be interesting to see what the real number is. Plus in the holiday quarter, Amazon is firing with all cylinders with the Kindle Fire. The early iPhone 4S sales data has blunted concerns that an incremental update would be overshadowed by other releases, though certainly there will be some concern that the Nexus Prime and Moto RAZR will steal some sales.

Analysts know that Apple always puts out conservative guidance, and take that into account when making "real" estimates. They probably have "real" estimates of what they think the forecast will be, so if it is lower, they might trade down. Plus, Apple is seen as a bellwether for the tech industry. If they are predicting a downturn, then that will weigh on the entire industry (under the "if Apple can't sell, who can?" philosophy).
Rating: 1 Votes
102 months ago

You should learn to trade options my friend.


True, but you can also lose your money a lot quicker. Stocks are notoriously volatile in the week leading up to option expiration day (like this week). I have seen stock prices plunge to right around the strike price of options with heavy positions just before expiration, only to see them go back up the following week. :mad:

I trade options, but they aren't for everyone.

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new products tomorrow:
my guess.

New Airport Express's
New Macbook Pro's
New iMac's

that is all


Makes sense. I'm guessing there will be speed bumps only on the MacBook Pros and iMacs (newer Sandy Bridge chips).
Rating: 1 Votes
102 months ago
http://www.apple.com/quicktime/qtv/earningsq411/

you can start listening at 5:00 est
Rating: 1 Votes
102 months ago
Buying apple stock is how you are able to get apple products for "free".

Also isn't it cooler to root for Apple when you are an owner of the company?! Such a great feeling to enjoy the products, root for the company and take your stock gains and obtain "free" iphones and macbooks.
Rating: 1 Votes

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