RBC Capital Markets analyst Mike Abramsky today issued a new report sharing the results of a proprietary survey of 2,200 respondents, revealing significantly higher demand for the iPhone 5 than was evident for the iPhone 4 ahead of its release last year. The survey shows that 31% of respondents are either very likely or somewhat likely to purchase an iPhone 5, compared to 25% for the iPhone 4 back in June 2010. Moreover, Apple's 15-16 month gap since the iPhone 4 release is also pushing a strong upgrade cycle, with 66% of existing iPhone users very likely or somewhat likely to upgrade to the iPhone 5.

rbc iphone 5 demand
Customer likelihood of purchasing iPhone 5 ahead of launch compared to iPhone 4

Unsurprisingly, potential launches of the iPhone 5 on Sprint and T-Mobile USA are also having a favorable effect on customer demand at those carriers, with 50-55% of customers at both carriers reporting that bringing the iPhone 5 to their carrier would make them "significantly" or "somewhat" more likely to purchase the device. Of the two carriers, Sprint has seen the stronger rumors of an iPhone 5 debut, although hints of an iPhone 5 for T-Mobile USA have also been circulating.

rbc sprint tmobile iphone 5 likelihood
Effect of iPhone 5 coming to Sprint or T-Mobile USA on customer purchasing plans

RBC's survey also takes a look at the tablet market, where Apple continues to hold a dominating position with 85% of all customers planning to purchase a tablet opting for an iPad. Samsung's Galaxy Tab takes second place with 4% of planned purchases.

Based on the strong survey results, RBC is raising its holiday quarter iPhone estimates from 24.4 million units to 27 million units and pushing total fiscal 2012 estimates from 105 million units to 110 million units. RBC is also raising its iPad estimates for the current back-to-school quarter from 10.5 million units to 12.5 million units as Apple continues to dominate the tablet market.

Related Roundup: iPad
Buyer's Guide: iPad (Neutral)
Related Forums: iPad, iPhone

Top Rated Comments

spazzcat Avatar
183 months ago
I know of four or five people waiting for iPhone 5 to drop their Doid or blackberry. They ask me everyday, any news on IP5?
Score: 2 Votes (Like | Disagree)
iAppleseed Avatar
183 months ago
Apple, release the iPhone 5. I'm tired of waiting. And the new features better be good or else.
Score: 1 Votes (Like | Disagree)
macnisse Avatar
183 months ago
More carriers + longer refesh cycle = increased demand.
Score: 1 Votes (Like | Disagree)
jb510 Avatar
183 months ago
I for one have no plans on replacing my iPhone 4 with a 4s/5... Unless it's released on Tmo In which case I'll switch instantly and tell AT&T to go to hell.

It's still hard to figure out what's going on, if the hardware is 4s then it seems odd to have had a longer upgrade cycle, but a 4s seems more likely since the focus is on iOS 5 and iCloud right now, not hardware. A fall release
date for iphone/ipad always made more sense to me though to capitalize on the holiday season.
Score: 1 Votes (Like | Disagree)
BC2009 Avatar
183 months ago
I think this survey would be more interesting after Apple announced iPhone 5, but before they release it. Many folks don't even know a new iPhone is due to be released.
Score: 1 Votes (Like | Disagree)
Epic Xbox Revie Avatar
183 months ago
Well duh.
Score: 0 Votes (Like | Disagree)

Popular Stories

iPhone 17 Pro and Air Feature

Two iPhone 17 Pro and iPhone Air Colors Appear to Scratch More Easily

Friday September 19, 2025 10:02 am PDT by
As reported by Bloomberg today, some of the new iPhone 17 Pro and iPhone Air models on display at Apple Stores today are already scratched and scuffed. French blog Consomac also reported on this topic. The scratches appear to be most prominent on models with darker finishes, including the iPhone 17 Pro and Pro Max in Deep Blue, and the iPhone Air in Space Black. Images Credit: Consoma ...
iOS 26

iOS 26.0.1 Coming Soon, Likely With iPhone Air and iPhone 17 Pro Fix

Thursday September 18, 2025 9:17 am PDT by
Apple is preparing to release iOS 26.0.1, according to a private account on X with a proven track record of sharing information about future iOS versions. The update will have a build number of 23A350, or similar, the account said. It is likely that iOS 26.0.1 will fix a camera-related bug on the new iPhone Air and iPhone 17 Pro models. In his iPhone Air review, CNN Underscored's Henry T. ...
iPhone 17 Pro Colors

iPhone 17 Pro Max Teardown Reveals Qualcomm's Snapdragon X80 Modem for 5G

Friday September 19, 2025 7:39 am PDT by
While the iPhone Air is equipped with Apple's custom C1X modem for cellular connectivity, all of the iPhone 17 models are outfitted with Qualcomm modems still. A teardown video shared on Chinese platform Bilibili today (via Reddit) appears to confirm the iPhone 17 Pro Max is equipped with Qualcomm's Snapdragon X80 modem in particular. The same modem is likely used in the iPhone 17 and iPhone ...
iphone 17 pro max techwoven

Here Are The Best Cases You Can Buy for Your New iPhone 17 and iPhone Air

Friday September 19, 2025 6:46 am PDT by
Apple's new iPhones launch today, and there are plenty of options to choose from when it comes to protecting your new device from drops and scratches. In this article, we're taking a look at some of the best options for iPhone 17, iPhone 17 Pro, and iPhone 17 Air cases, as well as a few charging accessories. Note: MacRumors is an affiliate partner with some of these vendors. When you click a...
iOS 26 on Three iPhones

iOS 26's Liquid Glass Design Draws Criticism From Users

Wednesday September 17, 2025 2:56 pm PDT by
It's been two days since iOS 26 was released, and Apple's new Liquid Glass design is even more divisive than expected. Any major design change can create controversy as people get used to the new look, but the MacRumors forums, Reddit, Apple Support Communities, and social media sites seem to feature more criticism than praise as people discuss the update. Complaints There are a long...
iphone 17 pro inside

iPhone 17 Teardowns Confirm SIM and eSIM-Only Battery Capacities

Friday September 19, 2025 8:39 am PDT by
YouTube channel REWA Technology today shared an iPhone 17 Pro teardown video, offering a closer look inside the model with a SIM card tray. We are still waiting for repair website iFixit to share a more comprehensive teardown of the latest iPhone models, but this video provides a good look in the meantime. The device features various internal design changes, including larger rear camera...