RBC Capital Markets analyst Mike Abramsky today issued a new report sharing the results of a proprietary survey of 2,200 respondents, revealing significantly higher demand for the iPhone 5 than was evident for the iPhone 4 ahead of its release last year. The survey shows that 31% of respondents are either very likely or somewhat likely to purchase an iPhone 5, compared to 25% for the iPhone 4 back in June 2010. Moreover, Apple's 15-16 month gap since the iPhone 4 release is also pushing a strong upgrade cycle, with 66% of existing iPhone users very likely or somewhat likely to upgrade to the iPhone 5.

rbc iphone 5 demand
Customer likelihood of purchasing iPhone 5 ahead of launch compared to iPhone 4

Unsurprisingly, potential launches of the iPhone 5 on Sprint and T-Mobile USA are also having a favorable effect on customer demand at those carriers, with 50-55% of customers at both carriers reporting that bringing the iPhone 5 to their carrier would make them "significantly" or "somewhat" more likely to purchase the device. Of the two carriers, Sprint has seen the stronger rumors of an iPhone 5 debut, although hints of an iPhone 5 for T-Mobile USA have also been circulating.

rbc sprint tmobile iphone 5 likelihood
Effect of iPhone 5 coming to Sprint or T-Mobile USA on customer purchasing plans

RBC's survey also takes a look at the tablet market, where Apple continues to hold a dominating position with 85% of all customers planning to purchase a tablet opting for an iPad. Samsung's Galaxy Tab takes second place with 4% of planned purchases.

Based on the strong survey results, RBC is raising its holiday quarter iPhone estimates from 24.4 million units to 27 million units and pushing total fiscal 2012 estimates from 105 million units to 110 million units. RBC is also raising its iPad estimates for the current back-to-school quarter from 10.5 million units to 12.5 million units as Apple continues to dominate the tablet market.

Related Roundup: iPad
Buyer's Guide: iPad (Neutral)
Related Forums: iPad, iPhone

Top Rated Comments

spazzcat Avatar
182 months ago
I know of four or five people waiting for iPhone 5 to drop their Doid or blackberry. They ask me everyday, any news on IP5?
Score: 2 Votes (Like | Disagree)
iAppleseed Avatar
182 months ago
Apple, release the iPhone 5. I'm tired of waiting. And the new features better be good or else.
Score: 1 Votes (Like | Disagree)
macnisse Avatar
182 months ago
More carriers + longer refesh cycle = increased demand.
Score: 1 Votes (Like | Disagree)
jb510 Avatar
182 months ago
I for one have no plans on replacing my iPhone 4 with a 4s/5... Unless it's released on Tmo In which case I'll switch instantly and tell AT&T to go to hell.

It's still hard to figure out what's going on, if the hardware is 4s then it seems odd to have had a longer upgrade cycle, but a 4s seems more likely since the focus is on iOS 5 and iCloud right now, not hardware. A fall release
date for iphone/ipad always made more sense to me though to capitalize on the holiday season.
Score: 1 Votes (Like | Disagree)
BC2009 Avatar
182 months ago
I think this survey would be more interesting after Apple announced iPhone 5, but before they release it. Many folks don't even know a new iPhone is due to be released.
Score: 1 Votes (Like | Disagree)
Epic Xbox Revie Avatar
182 months ago
Well duh.
Score: 0 Votes (Like | Disagree)

Popular Stories

iPhone 17 Pro Dark Blue and Orange

iPhone 17 Release Date, Pre-Orders, and What to Expect

Thursday August 28, 2025 4:08 am PDT by
An iPhone 17 announcement is a dead cert for September 2025 – Apple has already sent out invites for an "Awe dropping" event on Tuesday, September 9 at the Apple Park campus in Cupertino, California. The timing follows Apple's trend of introducing new iPhone models annually in the fall. At the event, Apple is expected to unveil its new-generation iPhone 17, an all-new ultra-thin iPhone 17...
xiaomi apple ad india

Apple and Samsung Push Back Against Xiaomi's Bold India Ads

Friday August 29, 2025 4:54 am PDT by
Apple and Samsung have reportedly issued cease-and-desist notices to Xiaomi in India for an ad campaign that directly compares the rivals' devices to Xiaomi's products. The two companies have threatened the Chinese vendor with legal action, calling the ads "disparaging." Ads have appeared in local print media and on social media that take pot shots at the competitors' premium offerings. One...
crossbody strap

iPhone 17's 'Crossbody Strap' Accessory to Feature Magnetic Design

Thursday August 28, 2025 7:49 am PDT by
Apple's cases for the iPhone 17 lineup will be accompanied by a new Crossbody Strap accessory with a unique magnetic design, according to the leaker known as "Majin Bu." Apple's Crossbody Strap reportedly features an unusual magnetic design; it likely has a "flexible metal core" that makes it magnetic along its entire length. At the ends, "rings polarized oppositely to the strap close the...
Awe Dropping Apple Event Feature

Five Things to Expect From Apple's 'Awe Dropping' September 9 Event

Tuesday August 26, 2025 4:17 pm PDT by
Apple today announced its "Awe Dropping" iPhone-centric event, which is set to take place on Tuesday, September 9 at 10:00 a.m. Pacific Time. There are a long list of products that are coming, but we thought we'd pull out five feature highlights to look forward to. That Super Thin iPhone - Apple's September 9 event will see the unveiling of the first redesigned iPhone we've had in years, ...