iPhone Shortage Points to New Model?

Wonder if his prediction track record will continue?

From July of last year:

Analyst Gene Munster for Piper Jaffray:

80% chance of new iMacs soon
a 13-inch ultra-portable is under development
Mac OS X-based iPods are under development

http://www.appletell.com/apple/comment/rbc-piper-jaffrays-latest-apple-predictions/

i don't think the new iPhone will be introduced until WWDC. which is still a long way off, to be out of current iPhones.

Wonder if his prediction track record will continue?

From July of last year:

http://www.appletell.com/apple/comment/rbc-piper-jaffrays-latest-apple-predictions/

I'm not sure I give him credit for those predictions. Munster tends to echo the rumor-mill.

Even this report is an echo of this report from AI.

Though he is alone in his 80% that this represents a new iPhone. that's all him.

arn

Does this guy get paid to do this?

If so, I predict there's a 99.9% chance Steve Jobs will wear jeans at WWDC.

I accept Paypal.

Those are really bold statments. We do know a new iPhone is coming. We just don't know when. I in the boat that believes we won't see it at least until WWDC.

one the one hand, a production shortage/problem of this magnitude so late in the life cycle of a product would be weird. On the other hand, apple just introduced the 16GB model a little while ago, and just rolled out the iPhone in several new countries. Seems like a very strange time for an update.

It would make no sense for Apple to release iPhone 2.0 before iPhone software 2.0, which Steve said would ship in late June. It's possible that they're cutting back on production of the current models anticipating decreased demand as people put off buying until WWDC, though.

It's not a worldwide shortage, the UK store has a 24 hr delivery on 8 and 16gb models.

It would make no sense for Apple to release iPhone 2.0 before iPhone software 2.0, which Steve said would ship in late June. It's possible that they're cutting back on production of the current models anticipating decreased demand as people put off buying until WWDC, though.

I think this is a reasonable explanation, but still, 3 months is a long time to not sell many iPhones. I'm sure most consumers are not yet aware that a 3G iPhone is likely on the way, nor will many US consumers care that much about it to hold off buying for 3 months.

This is pure speculation, but.....

What if the new 3G hardware design is ready to roll? Maybe the small delay at the moment is the time it takes to change the production lines over to incorporate the 3G antenna & transmission circuitry.

They could quietly put the 3G stuff in the existing model, keep selling it as an EDGE phone, with the chipset permanently switched down to EDGE by software control (most 3G chipsets will run EDGE - my Palm Treo defaults to it if no 3G signal can be found) and when they announce the big official 3G launch at WWDC (to coincide with the iPhone 2.0 software) Steve can pull one of his big surprises - "Oh, and by the way - every iPhone sold since April is ready for 3G with just a software update."

Steve does like to surprise people. Just a thought.