Apple is set to reclaim the title of world's largest smartphone maker for the first time since 2011, driven by the success of the iPhone 17 lineup, according to Counterpoint Research data (via Bloomberg).
Based on the firm's data, iPhone shipments are projected to grow 10% in 2025, easily outpacing Samsung's 4.6% growth. As a result, Apple is expected to capture a 19.4% global market share as the overall smartphone market expands 3.3% for the year.
The iPhone 17 series has posted double-digit year-over-year sales growth in both the U.S. and China. Counterpoint previously reported that the iPhone 17 lineup outsold iPhone 16 models by 14% during the first 10 days of availability in those markets, and that Apple had a record October in China with sales jumping 37% year-over-year.
Apple is also benefiting from easing U.S.-China trade tensions and a weaker dollar that has boosted purchases in emerging markets.
Counterpoint analyst Yang Wang said the key driver behind the upgraded shipment outlook was a replacement cycle "inflection point," as consumers who bought phones during the pandemic boom are now ready to upgrade. Wang noted that 358 million secondhand iPhones were sold between 2023 and Q2 2025, representing another pool of potential upgraders.
Looking ahead, Wang expects Apple to extend its lead with the 2026 launch of its first foldable iPhone and a budget-friendly iPhone 17e, followed by a major iPhone design overhaul in 2027, in celebration of the device's 20th anniversary.
