KGI Forecasts Around 75M iPhone and 4M Apple Watch Sales During Holiday Shopping Season

KGI Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo has released shipments forecasts for the iPhone, iPad, Mac and Apple Watch for upcoming fiscal quarters. Kuo estimates between 70-75 million iPhone and 3.5-4 million Apple Watch shipments during Q1 2016 of the fiscal year, which encompasses the busy holiday shopping season in the U.S., Australia, Canada, Europe and many other regions.

iPhone-Apple-Watch
In a research note, a copy of which was obtained by MacRumors, Kuo believes that iPhone sales momentum could gradually decline in the new year, possibly enough for the device to experience its first year-over-year shipments decline in the first quarter of a year in 2016.

We estimate iPhone shipments rose 2.1% QoQ and 23.6% YoY to 48.5mn units in 3Q15, of which 20-22mn units were iPhone 6s. We attribute the solid YoY growth to the inclusion of China as the first-launch market for iPhone 6s and to increased output of the new model (versus 14-15mn units of iPhone 6 in 3Q14).

However, as we do not expect overall demand for iPhone 6s to be significantly stronger than that for iPhone 6, we expect shipments momentum could gradually decline in 4Q15-1Q16F on a YoY basis. We expect iPhone may see its first YoY shipments decline in the first quarter of a year in 2016.

Kuo also forecasts between 14.5-15.5 million iPad shipments and 5.4-5.6 million Mac shipments in fiscal Q1 2016, which lines up with Q4 2015 of the calendar year, a three-month period ending December 31.

The analyst expects iPad Pro shipments to be around 2 million in fiscal Q1 2016, and believes the tablet's higher selling price will help offset an annual decline in iPad shipments, which could fall 16% to 40-42 million units in 2016.

We now expect shipments of iPad Pro to be around 2mn units in 4Q15, versus our previous forecast of 4-5mn units given quality issues with Sharp’s panel supply. However, thanks to a higher shipments weighting of iPad Pro, coupled with a lower mix of iPad mini, we anticipate the ASP of end-products and some components will trend up in 2016F (e.g. we estimate the ASP of backlight unit to rise 30-35% in 2016). This should be enough to offset total iPad shipments decline, which we estimate will fall 16% to 40-42mn units in 2016F.

Kuo expects that, amid lackluster sales for PCs, Mac sales will continue to be better than those of competitors. The well-informed analyst says the 13.3-inch MacBook Pro is Apple's most popular notebook, followed by the 12-inch MacBook, and expects the new iMacs with 4K and 5K Retina displays to account for at least 50-60% of total iMac shipments in Q1 2016 of the fiscal year.

Related Roundups: Apple Watch 11, iPad Pro
Related Forum: iPhone

Popular Stories

Tim Cook Rainbow

Apple Event in October? Here's What to Expect

Monday September 29, 2025 9:31 am PDT by
Apple's annual iPhone event is in the rearview mirror, but rumors suggest the company plans to release a handful of additional products before the year ends. Will there be another Apple event this October? We discuss the possibility below. Apple in October Apple's most recent October events were in 2021 and 2023. In 2022 and 2024, Apple did not host an October event. Instead, it...
apple wallet drivers license feature iPhone 15 pro teal 1

Apple's iPhone Driver's License Feature Now Available in 11 U.S. States

Tuesday September 30, 2025 6:40 am PDT by
In select U.S. states, residents can add their driver's license or state ID to the Wallet app on the iPhone and Apple Watch, providing a convenient and contactless way to display proof of identity or age at select airports and businesses, and in select apps. Apple recently revealed that the feature would soon be available in North Dakota, and starting today, the feature has officially gone...
maxresdefault

New iPad Pro With M5 Chip Leaked in Unboxing Video

Tuesday September 30, 2025 8:39 am PDT by
An apparent unboxing video for an unannounced iPad Pro with the M5 chip was uploaded to YouTube today by Russian channel Wylsacom. The same YouTube account leaked the 14-inch MacBook Pro with the M4 chip before it was announced by Apple last year, so this is likely a legitimate leak. Based on the box shown in the video, this appears to be a 13-inch iPad Pro with an M5 chip, 256GB of...
fcc vision pro leak

FCC Accidentally Leaks Apple's Next Vision Pro

Tuesday September 30, 2025 3:48 pm PDT by
The United States Federal Communications Commission (FCC) has seemingly confirmed Apple's work on an updated version of the Vision Pro headset. One of several documents the FCC shared today references an Apple-designed "Head Mounted Device" with a model number of A3416. An included image confirms the device is a Vision Pro. The FCC's uploads are transmission tests, SAR test reports, and...
space black mbp

Here's Every New Apple Product That Leaked Yesterday

Wednesday October 1, 2025 8:27 am PDT by
A handful of upcoming Apple products leaked yesterday, through a combination of YouTube videos out of Russia and U.S. Federal Communications Commission (FCC) documents that were released, despite Apple's confidentiality requests. The leaked products include an iPad Pro with an M5 chip, as well as updated MacBook Pro and Apple Vision Pro models. All of these devices had already been rumored...
iOS 26

Apple Releases iOS 26.0.1 With Fixes for Wi-Fi, Cellular, and Camera Issues on iPhone 17 Models

Monday September 29, 2025 10:12 am PDT by
Apple today released iOS 26.0.1 and iPadOS 26.0.1, the first updates to the iOS 26 and iPadOS 26 operating systems that came out earlier this week. The new software can be downloaded on eligible iPhones and iPads over-the-air by going to Settings > General > Software Update. According to Apple's release notes for the update, iOS 26.0.1 addresses a bug that could cause aberrations in...
macbook pro prime day 2025

FCC Leaks Upcoming MacBook Pro and More

Tuesday September 30, 2025 1:58 pm PDT by
The United States Federal Communications Commission has confirmed Apple's work on a new version of the MacBook Pro and several other products, leaking details on the devices ahead of launch. The FCC published documents that reference model numbers that do not correspond with existing devices. A3434, for example, references an unreleased MacBook Pro, while other numbers are likely for...
Apple MacBook Pro M4 hero

New MacBook Pro Nears Mass Production, But Four Bigger Upgrades Expected Next Year

Sunday September 28, 2025 2:08 pm PDT by
Apple's next MacBook Pro models will enter mass production soon, according to the latest information shared by Bloomberg's Mark Gurman. In his Power On newsletter today, Gurman said he continues to believe the new MacBook Pro models will be released at some point between late 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, meaning they should be available to order by March at the latest. Apple often...
iOS 26

Apple Continues to Prepare iOS 26.0.1 With Multiple Bug Fixes Expected

Sunday September 28, 2025 1:30 pm PDT by
Apple is preparing to release iOS 26.0.1, according to a private account on X with a proven track record of sharing information about future iOS versions. The account initially said iOS 26.0.1 would have a build number of 23A350, but they now expect the update to have a build number of 23A355. This suggests that the software update will include more bug fixes or changes than initially...
Home Hub Command Center with Dome Base Feature

Apple Working on All-New Operating System

Thursday September 25, 2025 1:11 pm PDT by
Apple is developing an all-new operating system codenamed "Charismatic," according to Bloomberg's Mark Gurman. Apple smart home hub concept based on rumors This is likely Apple's long-rumored "homeOS" operating system. In a report last month, Gurman said both Apple's rumored smart home hub in 2026 and tabletop robot in 2027 will run the new operating system. He said the software platform ...

Top Rated Comments

JXShine Avatar
130 months ago
No one--NO ONE--keeps sales figure a secret if they are amazing.

It means, undeniably, the figures are dismal. I would take the analysts analyses and cut it in half--2M for Q1.
Except apple has stated that they wouldn't disclose sales figures even before the watch went on sale.

But thanks for throwing numbers that you pulled out of your rear on the internet
Score: 16 Votes (Like | Disagree)
OllyW Avatar
130 months ago
None of the Apple Watch numbers will be accurate, but these "analysts" will keep throwing out numbers till something sticks
Even if they were spot on we wouldn't know they were accurate because Apple are still keeping the true sale figures secret.
Score: 9 Votes (Like | Disagree)
v0lume4 Avatar
130 months ago
Apple cannot sustain increases in year-over-year iPhone sales forever. I wonder when they will have their first YoY decrease like the article mentions. Not being a pessimist, but I'm just saying.
Score: 9 Votes (Like | Disagree)
spiderman0616 Avatar
130 months ago
Except apple has stated that they wouldn't disclose sales figures even before the watch went on sale.

But thanks for throwing numbers that you pulled out of your rear on the internet
Yeah--I don't know why people have such short memories about this. Well before one person even owned an Apple Watch, we knew they would not be sharing sales figures. And that's because everything Apple makes will now be compared to iPhone sales--Apple knows anything less than that would be considered a failure so they just choose not to play that game with the media. Unfortunately, MacRumors forum members still make it into something it's not.
Score: 9 Votes (Like | Disagree)
keysofanxiety Avatar
130 months ago
Why don't the analysts predict something that can't be wrong: that no matter what sales numbers Apple announce, the stock will still drop for whatever reason :D
Score: 8 Votes (Like | Disagree)
AustinIllini Avatar
130 months ago
No one--NO ONE--keeps sales figure a secret if they are amazing.

It means, undeniably, the figures are dismal. I would take the analysts analyses and cut it in half--2M for Q1.
Kindergarten economics right here.
Score: 8 Votes (Like | Disagree)