Lack of Hardware Updates Leading to Lighter-Than-Expected Quarterly Mac Sales
Previously-released data from NPD on U.S. Mac sales for January and February have demonstrated relatively anemic year-over-year growth, with January sales tracking only 1% above the previous January's performance and February sales coming in 4% higher. Still, analysts have suggested that ongoing growth in international markets could compensate for stagnation in the U.S. market as consumers continue to wait for product updates. Consequently, analysts have generally been holding firm on their predictions of 15-20% Mac unit growth on a worldwide year-over-year basis for the full quarter.
Some analysts had also held out hope that Apple could sneak in at least one update to its Mac lineup before the end of the quarter to provide a spark for Mac sales, but with the first group of Intel's Ivy Bridge processors not launching until the end of the month, Apple was unable to update its main Mac models within the first three months of the year.
Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty is out with a new research note today incorporating NPD's data on U.S. Mac sales for March, and as might be expected given the lack of hardware updates, Apple continues to fall short of analyst expectations, with Mac shipments down 4% year-over-year for the first calendar quarter.
Huberty continues to believe that international growth will offset at least some of the flat performance in U.S. sales for the quarter, although she appears somewhat pessimistic that it will be able to reach her 15% growth target on a global basis. Nevertheless, Huberty seems optimistic that booming iPhone and iPad sales will make up for any shortfall on the Mac side due to the balance of profits among the segments.
Although the US retail market improved in March, Apple shipment growth decelerated as the company faced much tougher Y/Y comparisons due to a notebook refresh this time last year. US retail data suggest Apple shipments fell 4% Y/Y in C1Q12 compared to our estimate of 15% global Mac unit growth. We expect faster international growth to offset some of the deceleration in the US. In fact, the divergence between international and US growth has accelerated from about four points in prior quarters to 15 points in C4Q11. More importantly, we expect demand upside from iPhone and iPad (83% of gross profit) to more than offset any Mac downside (9% of gross profit).
On a broader basis, the PC market is seeing even more substantial declines in sales, with U.S. PC sales tracking for declines of 10-15% year-over-year for the quarter. That performance is, however, better than Huberty had been modeling for, and major PC manufacturers such as HP and Dell could see some upside if their final results fall in line with data released so far.
Popular Stories
Following its iPhone 16 event on Monday, Apple shared a PDF on its website with a list of all new features and changes coming with iOS 18. The list includes many features that were already announced, including Apple Intelligence, new customization options for the Home Screen and Control Center, a redesigned Photos app, several enhancements to the Messages app, a Passwords app, and more....
Apple today announced the latest lineup of iPhones, including the iPhone 16, iPhone 16 Plus, iPhone 16 Pro, and iPhone 16 Pro Max. Pre-orders for these devices begin September 13, and if you plan on ordering from a cellular carrier in the United States, there will be plenty of options for discounts from the major carriers. AT&T is offering the iPhone 16 and iPhone 16 Pro at no cost with...
Will you be skipping the iPhone 16 Pro and waiting another year to upgrade? If so, we already have some iPhone 17 Pro rumors for you. Below, we recap key new features rumored for the iPhone 17 Pro models so far: 24MP front camera for all iPhone 17 models: All four iPhone 17 models will feature an upgraded 24-megapixel front-facing camera, according to Apple supply chain analysts Ming-Chi...
With the launch of the new iPhone 16, iPhone 16 Plus, iPhone 16 Pro, and iPhone 16 Pro Max, Apple has discontinued some of its older iPhones. As of today, Apple is no longer selling the iPhone 13, and the iPhone 15 Pro and iPhone 15 Pro Max have been replaced with the iPhone 16 Pro and iPhone 16 Pro Max. The iPhone SE remains as Apple's most affordable device, with the iPhone 14 and iPhone...
Apple today announced the iPhone 16 Pro and iPhone 16 Pro Max—its latest flagship smartphones—featuring larger displays, an all-new Camera Control button, and the A18 Pro chip. The iPhone 16 Pro has a 6.3-inch display, while the iPhone 16 Pro Max features a 6.9-inch display—the biggest iPhone display ever. The borders around the display are the thinnest of any Apple device. The...
Apple today released a new firmware update for the AirPods Pro 2, including both the Lightning and USB-C versions. The firmware has a build number of 7A294, up from 6F8, and it is available for all AirPods Pro 2 users. Apple has been beta testing this update, but it is launching ahead of when iOS 18 becomes available next Monday. There are multiple features that Apple is adding to the...
Apple today held the "It's Glowtime" fall event to debut new iPhone 16 models, a new version of the Apple Watch, new AirPods, and more. It took Apple more than an hour and a half to introduce the new devices, but we've recapped everything in a quick 13 minute video for our readers who want a short but detailed overview of what's new. Subscribe to the MacRumors YouTube channel for more videos. ...
