MacWorld San Francisco 2003 Rumor Wrapup: Winners and Losers
After each expo, we look back and review the rumors leading up to the event... to find out the winners and losers... and also to determine where the best information came from.
12inch and 17inch Powerbooks
Apple did an excellent job keeping these laptops under wraps. While one faint whisper of a 17" Powerbook did arrive to MacRumors.com a number of weeks ago... it was dismissed as incorrect information. No one expected Powerbook upgrades for this MacWorld expo.
While everyone suspected no Powerbook updates, ThinkSecret was bold enough to give it a 0% chance.
iMacs and eMacs
Updates to the iMacs and eMacs were the most consistent rumors surrounding this expo... with MacOSRumors, MacNews.net.tc, MacBidouille, and SpyMac predicting iMac and/or eMac updates at Macworld Sanfracisco.
We also suggested that iMac updates were possible as a vehicle for Bluetooth integration...
ThinkSecret, alone, correctly reported - with 100% certainty - no iMac/eMac updates at MWSF.
iPod II and iTablet
With tensions building... iPod II and iTablet rumors started spinning wildly out of control in the days before the MacWorld Expo.
Devices ranging from the iPod II to the iTablet littered the predictions of MacOSRumors ("a shoo in"), LoopRumors.com (iGadget), and MacNews.net.tc (iPod II)... with a surprising endorsement from eWeek/Rothenberg -- with what appeared to be details of an upcoming Apple Tablet.
No tablet made an appearance... but with the historically accurate eWeek on-board... we still take pause, despite Steve Jobs saying: "We're not sure the tablet PC will be successful" back in September 2002.
iApps and new Apps
ThinkSecret predicted Apple's new browser to be released at MWSF - with a 75% certainty. MacRumors received hints of Keynote in December but with little evidence to support it. Final Cut Express received no mentions prior to the expo... but the iApps were well predicted.
MacRumors' roundup detailed the release of iMovie 3.0, iPhoto 2.0 and iDVD 3.0 with further inter-app integration.
While iApp upgrade prices were predicted by both CNet and ThinkSecret, the actual release was less restrictive than rumors implied... with only iDVD really being a required purchase.
Bluetooth was predicted with most certainty by the Inquirer... indicating that Bluetooth would be coming at MWSF. While MacNews.net.tc actually first reported (on Dec 31st) that 802.11g based Airport hardware was due for this expo.
Information was sporadic for this expo... with volumes of information floating around -- and even CNet inaccurately predicting a digital device, which never came to pass. Apple appears to be successfully clamping down on leaks... and as a result, accuracy of information is hard to assess.
In addition, the proliferation of rumor sites has saturated us with predictions based on predictions. Perhaps the most striking failures in this round comes from MacOSRumors - whose predictions were almost entirely incorrect, as well as traditionally accurate sites such as CNet and eWeek missing their target.
Rumors to Watch
Apple 'Junkyard' Trademark - is this another application like Keynote?
Apple 'iPhone' Trademark - also an upcoming App?
Apple 'XGrid' Trademark - ? clustering
Apple 'Gigawire' Trademark - well, it aint 1394b