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KGI Forecasts Around 75M iPhone and 4M Apple Watch Sales During Holiday Shopping Season

KGI Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo has released shipments forecasts for the iPhone, iPad, Mac and Apple Watch for upcoming fiscal quarters. Kuo estimates between 70-75 million iPhone and 3.5-4 million Apple Watch shipments during Q1 2016 of the fiscal year, which encompasses the busy holiday shopping season in the U.S., Australia, Canada, Europe and many other regions.

iPhone-Apple-Watch
In a research note, a copy of which was obtained by MacRumors, Kuo believes that iPhone sales momentum could gradually decline in the new year, possibly enough for the device to experience its first year-over-year shipments decline in the first quarter of a year in 2016.
We estimate iPhone shipments rose 2.1% QoQ and 23.6% YoY to 48.5mn units in 3Q15, of which 20-22mn units were iPhone 6s. We attribute the solid YoY growth to the inclusion of China as the first-launch market for iPhone 6s and to increased output of the new model (versus 14-15mn units of iPhone 6 in 3Q14).

However, as we do not expect overall demand for iPhone 6s to be significantly stronger than that for iPhone 6, we expect shipments momentum could gradually decline in 4Q15-1Q16F on a YoY basis. We expect iPhone may see its first YoY shipments decline in the first quarter of a year in 2016.
Kuo also forecasts between 14.5-15.5 million iPad shipments and 5.4-5.6 million Mac shipments in fiscal Q1 2016, which lines up with Q4 2015 of the calendar year, a three-month period ending December 31.

The analyst expects iPad Pro shipments to be around 2 million in fiscal Q1 2016, and believes the tablet's higher selling price will help offset an annual decline in iPad shipments, which could fall 16% to 40-42 million units in 2016.
We now expect shipments of iPad Pro to be around 2mn units in 4Q15, versus our previous forecast of 4-5mn units given quality issues with Sharp’s panel supply. However, thanks to a higher shipments weighting of iPad Pro, coupled with a lower mix of iPad mini, we anticipate the ASP of end-products and some components will trend up in 2016F (e.g. we estimate the ASP of backlight unit to rise 30-35% in 2016). This should be enough to offset total iPad shipments decline, which we estimate will fall 16% to 40-42mn units in 2016F.
Kuo expects that, amid lackluster sales for PCs, Mac sales will continue to be better than those of competitors. The well-informed analyst says the 13.3-inch MacBook Pro is Apple's most popular notebook, followed by the 12-inch MacBook, and expects the new iMacs with 4K and 5K Retina displays to account for at least 50-60% of total iMac shipments in Q1 2016 of the fiscal year.



Top Rated Comments

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12 months ago

No one--NO ONE--keeps sales figure a secret if they are amazing.

It means, undeniably, the figures are dismal. I would take the analysts analyses and cut it in half--2M for Q1.

Except apple has stated that they wouldn't disclose sales figures even before the watch went on sale.

But thanks for throwing numbers that you pulled out of your rear on the internet
Rating: 16 Votes
12 months ago

Except apple has stated that they wouldn't disclose sales figures even before the watch went on sale.

But thanks for throwing numbers that you pulled out of your rear on the internet

Yeah--I don't know why people have such short memories about this. Well before one person even owned an Apple Watch, we knew they would not be sharing sales figures. And that's because everything Apple makes will now be compared to iPhone sales--Apple knows anything less than that would be considered a failure so they just choose not to play that game with the media. Unfortunately, MacRumors forum members still make it into something it's not.
Rating: 9 Votes
12 months ago
Apple cannot sustain increases in year-over-year iPhone sales forever. I wonder when they will have their first YoY decrease like the article mentions. Not being a pessimist, but I'm just saying.
Rating: 9 Votes
12 months ago

None of the Apple Watch numbers will be accurate, but these "analysts" will keep throwing out numbers till something sticks


Even if they were spot on we wouldn't know they were accurate because Apple are still keeping the true sale figures secret.
Rating: 9 Votes
12 months ago

No one--NO ONE--keeps sales figure a secret if they are amazing.

It means, undeniably, the figures are dismal. I would take the analysts analyses and cut it in half--2M for Q1.

Kindergarten economics right here.
Rating: 8 Votes
12 months ago
Why don't the analysts predict something that can't be wrong: that no matter what sales numbers Apple announce, the stock will still drop for whatever reason :D
Rating: 8 Votes
12 months ago

Apple cannot sustain increases in year-over-year iPhone sales forever. I wonder when they will have their first YoY decrease like the article mentions. Not being a pessimist, but I'm just saying.


Apple bases its global prices on the USD prices and most currencies have lost against the USD in the last couple of years. This is what is going to slow sales for Apple's already expensive devices. Apple need to reduce prices as their big margins allows them to do that comfortably.
Rating: 6 Votes
12 months ago
I believe that is called a "press release," not a "research note."




In a research note, a copy of which was obtained by MacRumors. ('//www.macrumors.com/2015/10/22/kgi-forecasts-iphone-apple-watch-sales/')..

Rating: 6 Votes
12 months ago

Even if they were spot on we wouldn't know they were accurate because Apple are still keeping the true sale figures secret.

Pretty safe prediction for those analysts then!
Rating: 6 Votes
12 months ago



I truly hope that everyone who has bought an Apple Watch is enjoying using it, but there is no doubt in my mind that it has flopped. If sales were stellar, Tim Cook would surely have boasted of them by now. It's that simple. Business is business.


He just did boast about it. He recently said they sold a lot at launch quarter, more in the following quarter and he predicted they would sell even more in the following quarter. That sounds like boasting to me.

I also see many stores that are starting to carry the watch. Do you think they are just doing that for fun? Those stores probably get confidential information about sales and they probably hear about demand from their customers. So I think the watch is selling "fine". I'm not sure what "fine" is in numbers. But it doesn't seem like a flop.
Rating: 5 Votes

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