Apple's Q1 2009 Earnings Predictions

Apple will release their earnings for the first quarter of the 2009 fiscal year Wednesday afternoon. A number of reports circulating over the past couple of days lend some insight into what we might be able to expect.

AppleInsider discusses a report from Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster, who predicts based on data from research firm NPD that Apple sold between 2.45 million and 2.55 million Macs in the quarter for a gain of 6-10% over the year-ago quarter. Munster specifically points to an approximately 4% gain in year-over-year Mac sales for the month of December, rebounding from flat or slightly negative growth during November, as a positive sign. Munster also predicts iPod sales in the range of 19 million to 20 million units, above Wall Street's expectations of approximately 18.6 million units.

Fortune, on the other hand, contrasts Munster's view with that of Bernstein Research analyst Toni Sacconaghi, who views much of the NPD data negatively. The major difference between Munster and Sacconaghi's predictions, however, appears in their iPhone numbers, for which NPD does not provide data. Munster predicts quarterly iPhone sales of 6.4 million, while Sacconaghi predicts sales in the range of 3.5 million to 4 million.

The wild card that may be missed by many investors, as thoroughly described by Andy Zaky at Bullish Cross, is Apple's use of subscription-based accounting for iPhone revenue. The practice, which results in Apple recognizing revenue from a particular iPhone sale over the two-year term of the service contract, resulted in significantly lower revenue numbers for last quarter than would have otherwise been seen.

As Zaky points out (and Fortune summarizes), this discrepancy has resulted in Apple releasing two sets of earnings number, one "official" one calculated according to Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) using subscription-based accounting of iPhone sales and one calculated using non-GAAP revenue recognizing each iPhone purchase entirely within the quarter in which the sale was made. Because most analysts base their reports on GAAP numbers, many are ignoring the impact of fractional revenue being carried over from sales made in earlier quarters. Consequently, while Q1 2009 most likely saw a decline in iPhone sales from the previous quarter, the impact of this decline on Apple's revenue numbers should be mitigated by this subscription-based accounting.

Popular Stories

iPhone 16 Camera Lozenge 2 Perspective Gray

Five Key Upgrades Coming to iPhone 16

Friday March 15, 2024 1:45 pm PDT by
The iPhone is Apple's top-selling product, and it gets an update every year. In 2024, we're expecting the iPhone 16 and iPhone 16 Pro lineup, with an arguably more interesting feature set than we got with the iPhone 15 and iPhone 15 Pro. Subscribe to the MacRumors YouTube channel for more videos. Capture Button All four iPhone 16 models are set to get a whole new button, which will be...
When To Expect New iPads Feature 1

Apple to Announce New iPads on March 26, Rumors Claim

Monday March 18, 2024 4:02 am PDT by
Apple is widely expected to release new iPad Air and OLED iPad Pro models in the next few weeks. According to new rumors coming out of Asia, the company will announce its new iPads on Tuesday, March 26. Chinese leaker Instant Digital on Weibo this morning 日发布%23">claimed that the date will see some sort of announcement from Apple related to new iPads, but stopped short of calling it an...
airpods 3 orange

Two New AirPods 4 Models Expected to Launch in September or October

Sunday March 17, 2024 7:56 am PDT by
Apple suppliers will begin production of two new fourth-generation AirPods models in May, according to Bloomberg's Mark Gurman. Based on this production timeframe, he expects the headphones to be released in September or October. Gurman expects both fourth-generation AirPods models to feature a new design with better fit, improved sound quality, and an updated charging case with a USB-C...
M3 iPad Feature 3

New iPads Likely to Begin Shipping in April

Monday March 18, 2024 9:52 am PDT by
Apple's new iPad Pro models with OLED displays will likely begin shipping to customers in April, according to information shared today by Ross Young, CEO of display industry research firm Display Supply Chain Consultants. Bloomberg's Mark Gurman also said the new iPad Pro models might not ship until "deeper" into April in his Power On newsletter on Sunday:I've repeatedly said that new...
iphone se 4 modified flag edges

iPhone SE 4 Expected to Depreciate Heavily

Tuesday March 12, 2024 9:04 am PDT by
Resale value trends suggest the iPhone SE 4 may not hold its value as well as Apple's flagship models, according to SellCell. According to the report, Apple's iPhone SE models have historically depreciated much more rapidly than the company's more premium offerings. The third-generation iPhone SE, which launched in March 2022, experienced a significant drop in resale value, losing 42.6%...
General iOS 17 Feature Orange Purple

iOS 17.4.1 Update for iPhone is Imminent

Monday March 18, 2024 5:27 am PDT by
iOS 17.4.1 and iPadOS 17.4.1 should be released within the next few days, with a build number of 21E235, according to a source with a proven track record. MacRumors previously reported that Apple was internally testing iOS 17.4.1. As a minor update for the iPhone, it will likely address software bugs and/or security vulnerabilities. It is unclear if the update will include any other changes. ...
Reasons to Not Upgrade to macOS Sonoma 14

macOS Sonoma 14.4: Reasons Not to Update

Monday March 18, 2024 9:36 am PDT by
Since Apple unveiled macOS Sonoma 14.4 on March 7, the transition to the latest software update has not been entirely smooth for everyone, and a number of issues have been reported by users that significantly impact their daily workflow. This article lists the most prominent challenges users have faced since updating to macOS Sonoma 14.4, and offers potential solutions where available. USB...