Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster late yesterday issued a new research note using average low-end smartphone pricing in emerging markets to argue that Apple's rumored lower-cost iPhone will launch in September with a price tag of around $199 unlocked.

piper_jaffray_world_unlocked_phones
Munster examined smartphone pricing on 15 different models across six international markets (Germany, UK, France, China, Brazil and India) to find that lower-end smartphones average slightly over $200 unsubsidized. In China and India, the average prices are $138 and $140 respectively, while Apple's cheapest existing phone, the iPhone 4, averages over $500.

We believe the last finding demonstrates that the biggest pricing gap for iPhone exists between the cheapest iPhone and the average low-end smartphone. This low- end segment is important given we estimate it is a $135B market in 2013 that Apple is currently not participating in (60% of smartphones, or 540m units at a $250 ASP).

Munster predicts Apple will announce its low-cost handset in September, and estimates that a $199 price tag would generate sales of 37 million phones in the rest of 2013, 96 million in 2014 and 170 million in 2015. While an iPhone at that price would carry much lower profit margins for Apple, Munster believes that the opportunity is so significant given the size of the potential market that Apple will be willing to focus on gross profit through volume rather than margins.

While rumors of a lower-cost iPhone have been picking up steam in recent months, a price point as low as $199 would seem to be overly aggressive for the company given its refusal to sacrifice quality to achieve a low price. Tim Cook noted at last week's Goldman Sachs conference that "the only thing [Apple] will never do is make a crappy product", and it remains difficult to see how Apple could provide the iPhone experience at such pricing.

Related Forum: iPhone

Top Rated Comments

Rogifan Avatar
128 months ago
Why does MacRumors keep reporting Wall Street analyst predictions as rumors? What inside information does Gene Munster have exactly? :rolleyes:
Score: 6 Votes (Like | Disagree)
JaySoul Avatar
128 months ago
Apple to Apple Apple iPhone Apple Apple in Apple Random Month Random Price?
Score: 3 Votes (Like | Disagree)
Moonjumper Avatar
128 months ago
He has made a guess at a price he thinks Apple could sell a lot of phones at, but without considering if Apple could make a phone at that price.

He also say that it will succeed on volume rather than profit margin. That is not Apple's way.

This is the least believable story on the front page I have seen. It has no basis at all.
Score: 2 Votes (Like | Disagree)
Bubba Satori Avatar
128 months ago
Where did this go school to figure out math like that?

Where did this go school to figure out english like that?
Score: 2 Votes (Like | Disagree)
Karma*Police Avatar
128 months ago
It boggles my mind that analysts (who were supposedly schooled) are so fixated on marketshare as if that's the only measure of success. They remind me of moths irresistibly drawn to a flame... They just can't help themselves.
Score: 2 Votes (Like | Disagree)
jvaska Avatar
128 months ago
I'm living in Mauritania (Africa) at the moment and there are tons of Samesung shops. Many of which are pretty ridiculous looking but nevertheless, they exist.

I've been meaning to take pictures and post them because some of them are hard to even imagine...

Even if Apple makes a low cost phone, they will need to vastly open up who can sell it if they wish to compete in a place like this.
Score: 2 Votes (Like | Disagree)

Popular Stories

maxresdefault

Can't Get an iPhone 14 Pro? Here's Why You Should Wait for the iPhone 15 Ultra

Monday December 5, 2022 11:44 am PST by
Due to production issues at Apple supplier factories in China, the iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max are backordered and basically out of stock at every store. If you were planning to gift or receive an iPhone 14 Pro model for the holidays and didn't already get one, you're basically out of luck because they're gone until late December. Subscribe to the MacRumors YouTube channel for more ...
Apple advanced security Advanced Data Protection screen Feature

FBI Calls End-to-End Encryption 'Deeply Concerning' as Privacy Groups Hail Apple's Advanced Data Protection as a Victory for Users

Thursday December 8, 2022 2:45 am PST by
Apple yesterday announced that end-to-end encryption is coming to even more sensitive types of iCloud data, including device backups, messages, photos, and more, meeting the longstanding demand of both users and privacy groups who have rallied for the company to take the significant step forward in user privacy. iCloud end-to-end encryption, or what Apple calls "Advanced Data Protection,"...
General iOS 16 Feature Yellow

iOS 16.2 for iPhone Launching This Month With These 8 New Features

Thursday December 1, 2022 8:44 am PST by
Apple plans to publicly release iOS 16.2 for the iPhone in mid-December, according to Bloomberg's Mark Gurman. The update remains in beta testing for now, with at least eight new features and changes already uncovered so far. iOS 16.2 introduces a number of new features, including Apple's new whiteboard app Freeform, two new Lock Screen widgets for Sleep and Medications, the ability to hide...
maxresdefault

Hands-On With Apple Music Sing in iOS 16.2

Wednesday December 7, 2022 12:24 pm PST by
With the iOS 16.2 release candidate that came out today, Apple added the new Apple Music Sing feature that was announced earlier this week. We thought we'd check out the new karaoke feature to see how it works. Subscribe to the MacRumors YouTube channel for more videos. Apple Music Sing is available on modern iPhones and iPads, as well as the newest Apple TV 4K. It's built in to the Apple...
Apple car wheel icon feature yellow

Apple to Charge Under $100,000 for Apple Car, Launch Planned for 2026

Tuesday December 6, 2022 2:31 pm PST by
Apple is aiming to launch an Apple-branded consumer-oriented vehicle by 2026, and its goal is to hit a price point under $100,000 to make the car appeal to a wider range of customers, reports Bloomberg. Apple initially planned to design a car that might look similar to Canoo's Lifestyle Vehicle, where passengers could face one another in a limousine-style car with no steering wheel or...
General iOS 16 Feature Yellow

iOS 16.2 for iPhone Expected to Launch Next Week With These 12 New Features

Thursday December 8, 2022 7:05 am PST by
iOS 16.2 is expected to be released next week following nearly two months of beta testing. With last-minute additions like Apple Music Sing and Advanced Data Protection, the software update now has over a dozen new features for the iPhone. Below, we've recapped many of the new features coming with iOS 16.2, including Apple's new whiteboard app Freeform, two new Lock Screen widgets, the...
introducing apple music sing

Apple Music Adding a Karaoke Experience With Apple Music Sing

Tuesday December 6, 2022 7:09 am PST by
Apple today announced Apple Music Sing, a new feature in Apple Music that lets users sing their favorite songs with adjustable vocals and more. Apple Music Sing will utilize Apple Music's real-time lyrics to allow users to sing to their favorite songs using adjustable vocals, background vocals, and duet view to allow more than one singer.Apple Music Sing includes: Adjustable vocals: Users...
Twitter Feature

Twitter to Charge $11 Per Month for Twitter Blue on iPhone, $7 on Website

Wednesday December 7, 2022 6:47 pm PST by
Twitter plans to charge $11 per month for a Twitter Blue subscription on the iPhone in order to account for the 30 percent cut that Apple takes from in-app purchases, reports The Information. On the web, Twitter Blue will be priced at $7 per month. Prior to when Twitter Blue was paused, Twitter was charging $7.99 for a subscription, but the pricing will change before it relaunches. According ...
Apple advanced security Advanced Data Protection screen Feature

Apple Announces End-to-End Encryption Option for iCloud Photos, Notes, Backups, and More

Wednesday December 7, 2022 10:00 am PST by
Apple today announced it is expanding end-to-end encryption to many additional iCloud data categories on an opt-in basis for enhanced security. iCloud already protects 14 data categories using end-to-end encryption by default, including the Messages app when backups are disabled, passwords stored in iCloud Keychain, Health data, Apple Maps search history, Apple Card transactions, and more,...