Apple's 'iPhone 5S Problem' Suggests Need to Be Less Predictable

Tuesday March 12, 2013 7:43 AM PDT by Ben Lovejoy
iMore Editor-in-Chief Rene Ritchie has written a worthwhile opinion piece arguing that part of Apple's challenge in maintaining its performance in an increasingly competitive smartphone market is the predictability of its "tick-tock" strategy of a major iPhone release every other year and an 'S' refresh on the years in between.

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Ritchie, whose close sources within Apple led him to report the Lightning connector several months before it was released and correctly predict both the iPad mini launch date and the announcement date of the iPhone 5, says this predictability hurts sales and helps competitors.
[Consumers] began to realize when new iPhones would be released. That led to a slowdown in sales for existing iPhone models just prior to the presumed next release. Apple taught people when to buy, and by extension, when not to buy.

Apple also taught competitors how to counter-program the iPhone. It's probably not a coincidence that HTC announced their next-generation Android phone, the HTC one, back in February, or that Samsung is holding their Galaxy S4 event this March.
Apple's approach of maintaining the same external casing and largely unchanged internal components in its 'S' models limits the innovation that can be offered, making consumers far more likely to look around at competitor products in 'S' years, giving competitors a great opportunity to launch major new models.

Ritchie points to the range of rumors circulating around potential new products from Apple, and says that while all are unlikely to be true, "breaking patterns and challenging expectations is just one way to solve that problem".

Related roundup: iPhone 6

Top Rated Comments

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Posted: 21 months ago
Same story every year... yet they are the most profitable every year.
Rating: 16 Votes
Posted: 21 months ago
They can't win, if they break release cycle like they did with the iPad then people on here feel cheated because their latest shiny isn't the latest shiny.
Rating: 15 Votes
Posted: 21 months ago
Isn't this one of the problems that was supposedly going to be solved by ditching Macworld? Part of the problem with the annual Macworld was that people expected Apple to announce groundbreaking new products every year in January. Pulling out was going to mean Apple could take its time and announce things when they were ready.

Now it seems they've fallen right back into the trap. People expect a new iPad in the spring, a new iPhone in June, new iPods in September, etc.

On the other hand, when they don't stick to a regular schedule you get people complaining that "I didn't expect the new iPad until spring! WTF now my iPad x is totally obsolete 3 months early!"

Seems they can't win no matter what.
Rating: 15 Votes
Posted: 21 months ago
Samsung seems to have the same cheap looking plastic casing on their flagship Galaxy line every year. Why is the burden on Apple to top their already impressive designs every year for the simple sake of letting people know they have the newest gear.

The one big aspect of the Galaxy line that drives the average consumer to make a purchase is it's screen size. Apple may or may not address that with a larger iPhone in the future.
Rating: 13 Votes
Posted: 21 months ago
I'm glad that Apple at least doesn't innovate just for the sake of surprising people. That's what everyone does, and while people are always hypnotized by new features and want them at all cost, they don't realize that most of these features either don't work well enough, aren't useful or aren't something they need or would use at any point in time.

I like the "if it ain't broke, don't fix it" approach, if you have a great product that works perfectly and does everything that it should (but not all kinds of unnecessary things that may look cool but don't actually do much), then there's not much to innovate. There isn't regularly a need for new ideas, unless you're a bored rich kid.

The expectation of being constantly flooded by new features doesn't come from the need for new features. It comes from boredom and people not knowing what to do with themselves and their money.

Phones are now like computers, and need to keep getting faster to stay where they are, hence the "S" releases. It's necessary because software gets more demanding without boundaries. That leaves 2 years to come up with useful ideas which may then become things that actually make life better.

I'd rather Apple stay focused on making great products than trying to rival others who drown people in new features that most people won't ever use, yet it's the number one cause of them buying the thing in the first place. Just because people are stupid doesn't mean your product should be stupid too.


The world is accelerating and lately you can't buy anything that won't be obsolete and slow in 2-3 years. It's more pronounced with phones than anything, and I don't think making them obsolete even faster is a good idea.
Rating: 10 Votes
Posted: 21 months ago

Apple's approach of maintaining the same external casing and largely unchanged internal components in its 'S' models limits the innovation that can be offered, making consumers far more likely to look around at competitor products in 'S' years, giving competitors a great opportunity to launch major new models.


I question how the conclusion in bold can be reached based on the 'S' years to date. Sounds good in theory but the 3GS and the 4S both resulted in a dramatic increases in sales.

Increase in sales (and market share) does not equal "consumers far more likely to look around at competitor products."
Rating: 6 Votes
Posted: 21 months ago

Same story every year... yet they are the most profitable every year.


They will have the most profitable quarter in the lifetime of the company, yet people will be pissed, the stock will, all because it wasn't enough profit.
Rating: 6 Votes
Posted: 21 months ago

The iPhone 5... is literally no different than the 4s.


I don't think that means what you think it means.

The 3GS and 4S may have sold more than past iPhones, but that's because the smartphone sector is still growing. Apple's market share has in fact been diminishing.


That's not true. iPhone market share increased significantly after the release of each of those products. Contrary to the popular story line, iPhone market share increased from 2011 to 2012.
Rating: 4 Votes
Posted: 21 months ago

I'm glad that Apple at least doesn't innovate just for the sake of surprising people. That's what everyone does, and while people are always hypnotized by new features and want them at all cost, they don't realize that most of these features either don't work well enough, aren't useful or aren't something they need or would use at any point in time.


Exactly how I feel. People always look for something new and shiny, no matter how irrelevant those are. Sure, new things are exciting and they're something to talk about and look at, but they should be added only if they add true value to the overall experience of using the phone. New features should be a means to a simpler, easier daily life, not the end by themselves.

People call me and other Apple fans "iSheep", when in fact they're the ones who're addicted with adrenaline rush they get with new, glittery gimmicks.
Rating: 4 Votes
Posted: 21 months ago

The iPhone 5 design is the most pristine example of laziness. It is literally no different than the 4s.. mostly because developers don't have the incentive to utilize the extra processing power on the device due to limits of the OS. I could sell my 32GB 4s and pay roughly $100 for a 5s equivalent - but I have no desire to do that. The 5s isn't going to be worth $100 to me. Apple's stock is half of what it was 6 months ago, and it's because the company is no longer innovative, not that people can predict what they are doing.


That word doesn't mean what you think it means and you're using it lazily.

Also Apple's stock is half what it used to be because of analysts spewing bullcrap plus a trigger happy stock market that believes everything it hears. Nothing else.

Samsung is probably about to release a GSIV that is identical to the GSIII (http://www.theverge.com/2013/3/12/4093048/galaxy-s-4-video-leak-rumor) in terms of external design. Same curved plastic shell with fake metal accents. Yet no one will moan about that, in fact they will sell millions and most will hail it as the best smartphone in the market. But with Apple its "they're not innovating, they're boring" blah blah blah.

How about you guys come up with a revolutionary idea every 6 months and lets see how you fare.

I'm not saying Apple is perfect, far from it but a lot of people seem to be in over their heads and no longer recognise reality.

Personally i can't wait till Apple buys back their stock and all the complainers move to Android/Samsung. Then it'll be back to the specific segment of the market that Apple has always catered to from the start and everyone will move on.
Rating: 4 Votes

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