Apple is scaling back its hardware shipment plans in 2026 due to DRAM shortages, Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo said today.
Kuo made the comment in a longer piece disputing a recent report suggesting TSMC has $1 billion of unpackaged processors waiting on memory chips that Apple has been unable to secure. Kuo said Apple plans processor production at least three months in advance based on the amount of memory expected to be available, and it does not have TSMC build large numbers of wafers ahead of time. He believes there are indeed memory shortages, but no situation where TSMC is sitting on unused inventory.
In other words, tight memory supply is real. But my understanding is that there has been no dramatic scenario in which TSMC first built up US$1 billion of WIP and then had to wait for memory to arrive before packaging could proceed. TSMC and Apple are both known for world-class execution, and such a dramatic development would be unusual given how closely the two companies coordinate their supply chains.
Memory shortages have already affected the Mac Studio, Mac mini, and MacBook Air, and it sounds like ongoing supply problems will also impact the upcoming iPhone models. Memory makers have been prioritizing supply for AI data centers because contracts for those chips are more profitable, leaving less capacity available for consumer device chips.
A lack of supply has driven prices up and led to long wait times for some products. Apple raised prices on all of its Macs and iPads in June, and iPhone prices are expected to go up in September.
The iPhone 18 Pro, iPhone 18 Pro Max, and foldable iPhone Ultra could be available in limited quantities because of the memory problems, and we expect the devices will sell out during the preorder period.
