Will Apple Meet Quarterly iPhone Sales Expectations Next Week?

Over the past several days, a number of analysts have raised the possibility that Apple may have some trouble meeting expectations for quarterly iPhone sales, currently pegged at about 7 million, at its earnings report scheduled for next Monday.

Yesterday, Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster noted that supply constraints on the iPhone 3GS may have hindered Apple's ability to meet customer demand. Apple had noted during its July earnings conference call that supplies of the iPhone 3GS were constrained due to robust demand, and major shortages of the device were seen in several countries well into the quarter. Ever the Apple optimist, however, Munster still expects Apple to have shipped 7.5 million iPhones during the quarter, ahead of consensus estimates.

Today's story comes from Oppenheimer & Co. analyst Yair Reiner, who claims that Apple will have a difficult time meeting iPhone sales expectations after the company implied partial quarterly sales of only 3.5 million iPhones at its "It's Only Rock and Roll" media event just three weeks before the end of the quarter.

"The first hint of trouble," he writes, "surfaced during the iPod event on Sept. 9, when Apple implied that ~3.5M phones had been sold with only 21 days left in the quarter. Subsequent checks showed the iPhone 3GS sold out in many markets. Something was clearly preventing Apple from shipping to demand Consensus estimates imply that 3.5M phones flowed out to customers in the final weeks of 4Q09, which may be too aggressive."

Reiner's estimate of 3.5 million iPhones sold, however, appears to be based on Apple CEO Steve Jobs' announcement at the event that the company had sold a total of 30 million iPhones since its initial launch in 2007, subtracting from that number the approximately 26.4 million iPhones recorded in Apple's earnings reports for previous quarters. But a key unknown in that calculation is the accuracy of the "30 million" number given by Jobs.

Apple is known for promoting its sales milestones and flashing round numbers on its slides during presentations for maximum visual impact. Apple could very well have sold 31 million or more iPhones, but announced only 30 million for an easy-to-remember presentation visual. In addition, Apple may have purposely understated its sales numbers at the event as part of its usual strategy of underselling its performance to investors and analysts in order to temper expectations enough that the company can easily beat expectations at its quarterly earnings releases, generating continued enthusiasm and publicity for the company's stock.

Reiner notes, however, that even if Apple struggles to meet iPhone sales expectations due to supply issues, consumer demand remains robust. Consequently, any dip in Apple's stock price that would likely accompany an unexpectedly low number of reported iPhone sales for the quarter could be seen as a buying opportunity for investors looking ahead to greater iPhone sales for the current quarter as supplies finally catch up with demand.

Related Forum: iPhone

Popular Stories

iOS 17 on Phone Feature

Gurman: iOS 17 to Provide Several 'Most Requested Features'

Sunday March 26, 2023 6:05 am PDT by
Apple changed the strategy for iOS 17 later in its development process to add several new features, suggesting that the update may be more significant than previously thought, Bloomberg's Mark Gurman reports. In January, Gurman said that iOS 17 could be a less significant update than iPhone updates in previous years due to the company's intense focus on its long-awaited mixed-reality...
dynamic island

iPhone 15 Dynamic Island to Include New Integrated Proximity Sensor

Friday March 24, 2023 12:27 am PDT by
This year, all iPhone 15 models will include Apple's Dynamic Island that unifies the pill and hole cutouts at the top of the display, but there will also be a material change to the feature that wasn't included in the iPhone 14 Pro models. According to a new tweet by Apple industry analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, the proximity sensor on the iPhone 15 series will be integrated inside the Dynamic Island ...
top stories 25mar2023

Top Stories: iPhone 15 Pro Design Leak, iOS 16.4 Coming Soon, and More

Saturday March 25, 2023 6:00 am PDT by
We're still almost six months away from the official unveiling of the iPhone 15 lineup, but it seems like every day we're learning more about what to expect from the next-generation models. Notably, this week gave us our clearest look yet at what appear to be some changes for the volume and mute control hardware. iOS 16.4 and associated releases are also right around the corner with some new ...
Hero0009

Best Apple Deals of the Week: Samsung's Smart Monitor M8 Gets Massive $250 Discount, Along With Year's Best AirPods Prices

Friday March 24, 2023 10:23 am PDT by
We saw a lot of great deals on Apple products and related accessories this week, including Samsung's iMac-like Smart Monitor M8 for $250 off, a 30 percent off spring sale at Anker, and the year's best prices on numerous AirPods models. All of these deals are still available to purchase right now, so we're recapping them and more below. Note: MacRumors is an affiliate partner with some of these ...
Steve Jobs Theater dusk

Apple Reportedly Demoed Mixed-Reality Headset to Executives in the Steve Jobs Theater Last Week

Sunday March 26, 2023 5:53 am PDT by
Apple showcased its mixed-reality headset to the company's top 100 executives in the Steve Jobs Theater last week, according to Bloomberg's Mark Gurman. In the latest edition of his "Power On" newsletter, Gurman explained that the "momentous gathering" is a "key milestone" ahead of the headset's public announcement planned for June. The event was intended to rally Apple's top members of...
apple mixed reality headset concept by david lewis and marcus kane

Some Apple Employees Seriously Concerned About Mixed-Reality Headset as Announcement Draws Closer

Sunday March 26, 2023 8:25 am PDT by
Some Apple employees are concerned about the usefulness and price point of the company's upcoming mixed-reality headset, The New York Times reports. Apple headset concept by David Lewis and Marcus Kane Initial enthusiasm around the device at the company has apparently become skepticism, according to eight current and former Apple employees speaking to The New York Times. The change of tone...
iphone 14 pro max deep purple feature purple

iPhone 15 Pro Rumor Recap: 10 New Features and Changes to Expect

Thursday March 23, 2023 6:42 am PDT by
While the iPhone 15 series is still around six months away from launching, there have already been plenty of rumors about the devices. Many new features and changes have been rumored for the iPhone 15 Pro and iPhone 15 Pro Max in particular. Below, we have recapped 10 changes rumored for iPhone 15 Pro models that are not expected to be available on the standard iPhone 15 and iPhone 15 Plus:A1...
iOS 16

iOS 16.4 Will Add These 8 New Features to Your iPhone

Sunday March 26, 2023 8:06 am PDT by
Following nearly six weeks of beta testing, iOS 16.4 is expected to be released to the public as soon as this week. The software update includes a handful of new features and changes for the iPhone 8 and newer. To install an iOS update, open the Settings app on the iPhone, tap General → Software Update, and follow the on-screen instructions. Below, we have recapped eight new features and...