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Analysts Predict Flat iPad Sales for Q3 2014, Slight Increase in iPhone Sales

Six months after the launch of the iPhone 5s, iPhone 5c, iPad Air and Retina iPad mini, analysts are expecting a slight rise in iPhone sales from last year, with little growth in sales of the iPad, according to new reports from Philip Elmer-Dewitt of Fortune.

Q3 2014 iPhone sales estimates from 15 Wall Street professionals and 11 amateurs range from 31.8 million to 42 million, averaging 35.88 million. During the year-ago quarter, Apple saw 31.24 million iPhone sales, and the estimated year-over-year change is 4.64 million or 14.85 percent growth.

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Q3 2014 iPad sales estimates from the 26 analysts range from 12.3 million to 16 million, averaging 14.43 million. During the year-ago quarter, Apple saw 14.62 million iPad sales, and the estimated year-over-year change is -0.19 million, or a slight -1.27 percent decline, which may not be as dramatic as the dip in sales during Q2 2014.

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Did sales bounce back in Q3? The 26 analysts Fortune polled are almost evenly divided on the question, with slightly more expecting iPad sales to be lower this quarter than they were the same quarter last year.

The average estimate -- 14.35 million -- suggests that iPad sales were down sequentially and flat year over year. But behind that average is a rather wide range, from a high of 16 million (submitted by Asymco's Horace Dediu and Hilliard's Stephen Turner) to a low of 12.26 million (from Canaccord's T. Michael Walkley).
Thus far in 2014, Apple has not released new iPad or iPhone models. The company is expected to launch several new devices in the fall, however, including the iPhone 6 and updated models of the iPad Air and iPad mini with Retina Display, which will lead to much stronger sales later in the year.

Apple will announce its earnings for the third fiscal quarter (second calendar quarter) of 2014 on Tuesday, July 22. The earnings release is posted just after 4:30 PM ET following the close of regular stock trading, and the conference call is scheduled to follow at 5:00 PM Eastern / 2:00 PM Pacific.

Top Rated Comments

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14 weeks ago
I prefer to get my investment advice from someone with a proven track record.
Rating: 21 Votes
14 weeks ago

iPad's big problem right now is its OS. iOS is showing major signs of problems at this point, particularly for a large device that has aspirations to be a productivity device, and not just an e-reader, game playing, facetime device. It's not even clear if Apple themselves are optimizing their OS for the thing. Look at how awkward iOS7 was on it.

Agreed. iOS is the problem. That's why high-end productivity tablets running Android and Windows are doing so well and why Samsung's profits are up... oh wait, maybe you should sit down and think for a while before posting.
Rating: 17 Votes
14 weeks ago
iPad's big problem right now is its OS. iOS is showing major signs of problems at this point, particularly for a large device that has aspirations to be a productivity device, and not just an e-reader, game playing, facetime device. It's not even clear if Apple themselves are optimizing their OS for the thing. Look at how awkward iOS7 was on it.

It is fairly common these days (caveat: in my circles) to see people look at their tablets and go 'I don't really know why I bought this', and go back to their phone or computer.

My children love them, as they get to play some fun and educational games on their iPads. I love reading on them. But for what Apple is charging for them, it is hard not to see the value proposition in something like the Kindle Fire line for *that* purpose.

But I'm heavily tied into the Apple ecosystem, so we won't be switching. We won't be buying a new one for some time (if ever) however.
Rating: 11 Votes
14 weeks ago

Agreed. iOS is the problem. That's why high-end productivity tablets running Android and Windows are doing so well and why Samsung's profits are up... oh wait, maybe you should sit down and think for a while before posting.


You just don't get it, do you?

He and his four friends find no use for the iPad, so the other 70+ million people who bought one over the last year are just an anomaly. He can't figure out how to be productive with one, so surely nobody else has. They're all just sitting in a desk drawer somewhere, because none of these people can figure out a productive way to use it for business:

http://www.apple.com/ipad/business/profiles/

And these guys haven't figured out how to use it to educate:

http://www.apple.com/education/ipad/teach-with-ipad/

And these artists haven't a clue how to make it productive:

http://blogs.computerworld.com/16776/six_reasons_ipad_is_a_productivity_tool

Yeah, iOS is such an issue...
Rating: 10 Votes
14 weeks ago
Lost me at the title’s very first word.
Rating: 8 Votes
14 weeks ago
Here we go again with the "professional" vs. "amateur" analysts.

The correct distinction is between affiliated and unaffiliated analysts. A person isn't an "amateur" simply because they practice their profession freelance.
Rating: 6 Votes
14 weeks ago
not no big deal since the new ones will be coming soon
Rating: 5 Votes
14 weeks ago
So Apple is going up, and every single big OEM competitor is being put down, while some asian companies (Xiaomi, lenovo, etc.) are going up by taking the low end, in a predictable useless cycle. Soon other companies will take that place.

In the last 16 years there has been only one constant in the tech industry:

Apple makes the best products and they are the ones to innovate and set big trends.

Amazing.

Nice yearly growth in the slow quarter, no one comes close. Maybe if you consider the whole huge samsung electronics (that includes samsung mobile), but even they are going down. Fairly quick, actually.
Rating: 4 Votes
14 weeks ago
iPad no longer has the best display either, and hasn't for a couple years now

Pathetic RAM capacity

Competition catching up, in mJor cities and airports I see more and more androids tablets then I have have before and it's not ever going to slow down
Rating: 3 Votes
14 weeks ago

Yup. Devs love having to rewrite complicated pieces of software from scratch for entirely new surprise platforms.

And the consumers? They'll laugh with joy over not having the apps they regularly use available at launch, and giggle with delight when they have to rebuy them all again when they finally do.

None of them will look at this new iPad and say "...but I already bought this", because they'll be so excited about the potential of it. Who cares about backwards compatibility? People want new!

...it's why WinRT took off like it did.


It's how things used to be and how we advanced so fast so quick and how we got where we are today, and some may argue it why things have stagnated as people are scared to do it.

Games consoles do it. Fresh sheet often and consumers love the new titles and the devs love the new tools and features open to them.

Also why Apple banned devs from doing that with the iPad, not allowed to just slap on an iphone app and put no effort into it.

Not saying we want to do that all the time. but from time to time a clean sheet can really give a kick people need.
Rating: 2 Votes

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