Ming-Chi Kuo Says 'Worst Soon Over' in Regards to Slowing iPhone Sales

Earlier this month, Apple lowered its revenue guidance for the first quarter of the 2019 fiscal year by up to $9 billion due to fewer iPhone upgrades than it anticipated, particularly in the Greater China region.

2018 iphone trio
Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, however, believes the "worst" will be "soon over" in regards to the slowdown. In his latest research note with TF International Securities, obtained by MacRumors, Kuo opined that the "share prices of Apple and most ‌iPhone‌ suppliers are generally priced in the negative."

Our report published on December 14, 2018, was the first to cut the estimation of 2019 iPhone shipments to 190mn units or less; the current market consensus on 2019 iPhone shipments (160–180mn units) is much lower than our estimation and we believe the share prices of Apple and most iPhone suppliers are generally priced in the negative.

We maintain our forecast of 188–192mn units for 2019 iPhone shipments. We believe the downside risks of share prices for the Apple and iPhone supply chain are limited in the near term given that 2Q19 iPhone shipments will likely be better than the market consensus.

Kuo has slightly cut his estimate for ‌iPhone‌ shipments in the first quarter of 2019 from 38–42 million units to 36–38 million units because the "demand for new models in China and emerging markets is lower than expected," but he believes the decline will begin to ease starting in the second quarter.

Specifically, he estimates ‌iPhone‌ shipments in the second quarter of 2019 will reach 34–37 million units, slightly higher than the market consensus of 30–35 million units. That would still be a roughly 14 percent decline on a year-over-year basis, but far better than an estimated 29 percent drop in the first quarter.

As long as the US-China trade war does not worsen, Kuo expects the improvement to continue into the second half of 2019, with ‌iPhone‌ shipments likely to be generally flat compared to the second half of 2018 thanks to stronger replacement demand, trade-in programs, and market share gain in European markets.

Kuo maintains his forecast of 188–192 million ‌iPhone‌ shipments in 2019.

Related Forum: iPhone

Top Rated Comments

MacFather Avatar
68 months ago
Deleted.
Score: 61 Votes (Like | Disagree)
magicschoolbus Avatar
68 months ago
Prices are to high. I have however been purchasing more Apple stuff but it’s sll last years tech. Apple Watch 3 LTE and 10.5 iPad. Just can’t afford the new stuff.... and I’ve got a pretty good Paying job. That extra 100 on nearly everything they have released has really made it much harder to purchase the latest and greatest.
Score: 19 Votes (Like | Disagree)
Baymowe335 Avatar
68 months ago
People don't like data, but the worst was in China. Other markets did quite well. In fact, the US, Canada, Netherlands, Korea, Italy, Germany, etc all hit records in Q12019.

Other companies have since reported weakness in China as well (Intel, Samsung). Apple was in front of this and is working on fixing the issues in China.

Apple is going to report record EPS for Q12019 and will execute in FY2019, as usual. I believe 160M iPhone sales in 2019 is totally ridiculous. They did 217M last year, so unit sales just are not going to drop that quickly. That would indicate a 26% decline in iPhone sales.

Remember, they are going to post $84B in sales in 90 days versus $88B last year, a 5% impcat. A significant drop in iPhone sales would have an even larger impact, more like the 26% above.
[doublepost=1548614404][/doublepost]
Tens of millions of iPhone users around the globe won’t upgrade their phones until there’s a compact, thumb-friendly iPhone in the lineup again.
Nice speculation. How about some facts to back that up?
[doublepost=1548614566][/doublepost]
As long as they still using intel chip....i wouldn’t say it is soon over.
The majority of people have no clue what kind of chip is in their iPhone.
Score: 14 Votes (Like | Disagree)
DotCom2 Avatar
68 months ago
IMHO, Apple needs to STOP being a Super High Premium Company and just be a High Premium Company!
Score: 14 Votes (Like | Disagree)
ryanwarsaw Avatar
68 months ago
Did this person ever got anything right?
Why yes. Yes, he did. Many many times.
Score: 13 Votes (Like | Disagree)
Apple Mac Daz Avatar
68 months ago
A lot peeps are just being priced out of upgrading n holding onto there current phones longer
Score: 12 Votes (Like | Disagree)

Popular Stories

reset password request iphone

Warning: Apple Users Targeted in Phishing Attack Involving Rapid Password Reset Requests

Tuesday March 26, 2024 4:34 pm PDT by
Phishing attacks taking advantage of Apple's password reset feature have become increasingly common, according to a report from KrebsOnSecurity. Multiple Apple users have been targeted in an attack that bombards them with an endless stream of notifications or multi-factor authentication (MFA) messages in an attempt to cause panic so they'll respond favorably to social engineering. An...
maxresdefault

Apple to Launch New iPad Pro and iPad Air Models in May

Thursday March 28, 2024 11:07 am PDT by
Apple will introduce new iPad Pro and iPad Air models in early May, according to Bloomberg's Mark Gurman. Gurman previously suggested the new iPads would come out in March, and then April, but the timeline has been pushed back once again. Subscribe to the MacRumors YouTube channel for more videos. Apple is working on updates to both the iPad Pro and iPad Air models. The iPad Pro models will...
Generic iOS 18 Feature Purple

iOS 18: What to Expect From 'Biggest' Update in iPhone's History

Wednesday March 27, 2024 11:10 am PDT by
At least some Apple software engineers continue to believe that iOS 18 will be the "biggest" update in the iPhone's history, according to Bloomberg's Mark Gurman. Below, we recap rumored features and changes for the iPhone. "The iOS 18 update is expected to be the most ambitious overhaul of the iPhone's software in its history, according to people working on the upgrade," wrote Gurman, in a r...
maxresdefault

Apple Announces WWDC 2024 Event for June 10 to 14

Tuesday March 26, 2024 10:02 am PDT by
Apple today announced that its 35th annual Worldwide Developers Conference is set to take place from Monday, June 10 to Friday, June 14. As with WWDC events since 2020, WWDC 2024 will be an online event that is open to all developers at no cost. Subscribe to the MacRumors YouTube channel for more videos. WWDC 2024 will include online sessions and labs so that developers can learn about new...
apple maps 3d feature

Apple Maps May Gain Custom Routes With iOS 18

Tuesday March 26, 2024 3:10 pm PDT by
Apple may be planning to add support for "custom routes" in Apple Maps in iOS 18, according to code reviewed by MacRumors. Apple Maps does not currently offer a way to input self-selected routes, with Maps users limited to Apple's pre-selected options, but that may change in iOS 18. Apple has pushed an iOS 18 file to its maps backend labeled "CustomRouteCreation." While not much is revealed...
General iOS 17 Feature Orange Purple

Apple Releases Revised Versions of iOS 17.4.1 and iPadOS 17.4.1 With Updated Build Number

Wednesday March 27, 2024 5:59 am PDT by
Apple on late Tuesday released revised versions of iOS 17.4.1 and iPadOS 17.4.1 with an updated build number of 21E237, according to MacRumors contributor Aaron Perris. The updates previously had a build number of 21E236. The revised updates are available for all iPhone and iPad models that are compatible with iOS 17 and iPadOS 17, but they can only be installed via the Finder app on macOS...
applephilschiller

Apple's Phil Schiller Works 80 Hours a Week Overseeing App Store

Wednesday March 27, 2024 2:03 pm PDT by
With the App Store and app ecosystem undergoing major changes in the European Union, The Wall Street Journal today shared a profile on App Store chief Phil Schiller, who is responsible for the App Store. Though Schiller transitioned from marketing chief to "Apple Fellow" in 2020 to take a step back from Apple and spend more time on personal projects and friends, he is reportedly working...